FINANCES, BOARD ROOM CHANGES AND BOLTON PREVIEW

FINANCIAL RESULTS

The financial results of the Group were released yesterday and most media outlets focus on the ultimately meaningless ‘Football Rich List’, deriving misplaced pleasure from seeing the club rise to third in these rankings. To what purpose? The listings are occupied by those who have success but comparisons are ultimately meaningless. What is with necessity to see who the top twenty or one hundred clubs in Europe are? They can be guessed from titles and league positions.

Up until about five years ago, Arsenal struggled to get into the top five of English clubs yet were the second most successful in the decade previous when the list started with more trophies than Tottenham, Newcastle and Liverpool, all of who regularly finished above us when it was compiled. Now it is simply a case of showing the rich getting richer, opening a wider gap on the rest. Even with Manchester City’s new owners, it is a list they will struggle to make impact upon. In terms of overall wealth, measured by Balance Sheet strength, they will probably shoot to the top but the question this will beg is whether or not it equates to success on the pitch?

As far as the revenue figure is concerned the most interesting aspect is that it shows the continuing dependency upon broadcasting and commercial activities related to the club. Last year, one of the key features of the Financial Statements was that unlike the rest of Europe, Arsenal derived more than half of their top line from gate receipts, 51% of football turnover with broadcasting revenues 42%. For 2008, the ranking has changed with the percentages being 46% and 48% respectively. It is a return to the trend that existed at Highbury and no doubt, one that will continue with the final year of the current broadcasting deal being 2009/10 and the returning the highest yield of that contract. The new deal will be a more competitive environment with Setanta in a seemingly stronger position given that it provides the platform for in-house broadcasting for the top four. The cost to the purchaser will no doubt collectively rise. It is still nowhere near the levels of the Italian clubs, the Milanese both relying for up to 70% of their income from television.

The debt levels will have Platini and Blatter jumping around in their chairs as if they were sitting on a pile of hot coals. Yet there are emminently serviceable, Mancunians no doubt envious of the fact that interest payments were a relatively small £17m. Moreover, borrowings are £100m lower than the value of the assets which they helped to create. Crucially, the club has financed the Arsenal Group separately. From this, it is a logical assumption that the property and football club borrowings are not dependent upon the other for servicing or guarantee purposes, keeping the club distant from the property loans. Whether the legal reality would offer such protection is open to debate.

The debate over transfer dealings will no doubt rear its head again, the misconception that cash or profit is equal to the fund available to Arsene. The two are not completely unrelated but the majority of deals these days are funded over the course of three or more years. It will not stop the carping about how there is £90m (£60m after deposit commitments are taken into consideration) sat in the bank, ignoring the oldest accounting trick in the book to gear your cashflow to having huge sums at the close of business on that day and being recorded in officialdom, only for it to be substantially reduced within the following weeks.

KROENKE JOINS THE BOARD

More will become apparent when the full documents are issued on Monday. Meanwhile Stan Kroenke joined the Board, a move designed to head off more interest from Alisher Usmanov and provide more protection for the current directors. It is, as is always the case, with Kroenke it is not quite that simple. He is not tied into the lockdown agreement and there is nothing stopping him either selling out to, or buying, Usmanov. Nor joining forces for that matter. It would make it easier for any existing board member to sell to him once April 2009 has passed, possibly more acceptable to the rest of the directors. Maybe that is the outcome that is being set up here.

BOLTON PREVIEW

And then the football rears its’ ugly head. And the head is quite possibly the ugliest of them all with the visit to Bolton this teatime. For once, the extra hour or two between kick-off times might work in Arsene’s favour with the squad getting more rest; one hopes that the rest does not convert to lethargy and we have a repeat of last season’s first half performance. Ninety minutes-worth of the second half fight back would be acceptable as there is little doubt that it would yield three points. With United and Chelsea meeting tomorrow, three points would be most welcome. It is hard to decide what the best outcome from that fixture would be, indeed it is perhaps too early in the season to know.

Arsene observed yesterday that there will be no returnees today so the squad that went to Kyiv plays. Tinkering is possible, depending on recovery times but it would be no surprise to see Bendtner in the starting line-up, probably at the expense of van Persie. This would necessitate either Walcott or Vela on the left, Eboue on the right, and with the Carling Cup taking centre-stage next week, most of the squad will be rested for a week before the visit of Hull City to The Emirates.

Denilson has been praised by Arsene,

Denilson has different qualities to Flamini but if you look at the numbers at the end of the season you will see he is a very good player. You look at the assists he has had since the start of the season, the balls he wins, the interceptions he has and the distance he covers. He is maybe not a flashy player but he is an efficient player

The statistics back his assertion up with Denilson riding high in the early stages of the season in the ubiquitous tackles, passes and assists tables. Were he to add a couple of goals perhaps his qualities might gain wider recognition. Once again Diaby is losing out on his chance to shine due to injury and Denilson has to be commended on taking the opportunity presented to him in the Frenchman and Alex Song’s absence. Unlike Flamini, he has more competition for places. Song is back at the club from internationals and can fit in snugly providing more defensive cover whilst Diaby is expected back in a couple of weeks. The centre of midfield though is crucial to the team and it is not a position where much rotation should be expected, the partnership taking time to gel. If Denilson maintains his form, he will keep his place.

Song meanwhile seems to have changed Arsene’s mind. Barely six months ago, he was viewed as more of a long-term choice for the centre of defence. Now, the manager seems less certain,

Alex is capable of doing it. When I signed him I liked] his personality, his technical quality, his composure, his strength in the one against one, the way he uses his body in the fight and, overall, his intelligence. He is a good centre back and he is a good central midfielder. I believe in him.

The last sentence is the crucial one. It is a case of belief, not just in Song but in all of the players. I am no different to anyone else, in that there are players who at times you do not have total confidence in. Mine is Denilson over the course of the season and the concern over his physical endurance to last a campaign is the same that Arsene had over Alex Song earlier in 2008. That may have disappeared and this is the sort of game where you might expect him to be chosen ahead of Denilson. Form suggests that this might be a mistake though and a midfield quartet along the lines of Kyiv should not be ruled out. It would rob the team of a certain natural width if Denilson were pushed leftwards but putting Eboue and Song alongside the Brazilian / Fabregas combination adds steel.

One interesting comparison will be that with Muamba. He was deemed highly promising at Arsenal but never came back from his loan. Motiviation to show Wenger what he has missed will be high but it is up to the midfield to outpass him and once through, Bolton do not have the strongest defence.

For all of the debate though, an unchanged line-up is probably the outcome. The team has time to recharge and is playing well as a unit, something that will prey on Arsene’s mind. The adage of never changing a winning team does not seem too relevant in these days of rotation but tinkering around the edges is the most we will get.

As for Tomas Rosicky, he might well be Santa’s present to Arsene,

He is not close to playing again and he has not had any real setback, but the evolution [of his injury] is very slow. The recovery process is slower than we expected at the start. It doesn’t look worrying, but the delay is longer than expected. However, I am optimistic that before Christmas you will see him in a good shape

Most of the frustration that has emerged over the player is that Rosicky is known to be a genuinely world-class attacking midfielder. A full recovery is all that can be wished for. Much the same with Eduardo,

He is still very much on course and could be a very good surprise because he is a little ahead of schedule

The same wish for recovery as Tomas to Eduardo. And Arsene, don’t bring either back before they are ready.

A win today keeps momentum going, maintains a top three spot, on the shoulder of the leading pack. Frankly it would be a good position to be in once the final corner of the season is in sight and the whippersnappers can then sprint past the opposition.

Enjoy the match wherever you are watching it. ’til Tomorrow.