Defensive Hangover & Sunday Paper Round

It is hard to know what to make of yesterday’s 2 – 2 draw with Boca Juniors. The first half and opening exchanges of the second saw Arsenal in control before a collapse for the final quarter of the match, conceding a two goal lead in the process. Had Vito Mannone been a slacker then Riquelme’s late free kick might indeed have produced a late winner for the visitors.

Samir Nasri received a mix reception, significantly more positive in volume than negative but a sign perhaps that all is not forgiven. His performance was as mixed as that of the team. He did not dominate the midfield, that was a role gobbled up by  Jack Wilshere’s mix of energy and quick passing / movement.

The first half defensive pairing of Djourou and Koscielny were far more secure than when Squillaci replaced his compatriot for the second forty-five minutes. The jitters of the crowd transmitted to the pitch or was it vice versa? Either way, a clean sheet that had been protected with hard work in the first half – and a little luck – was always under threat; the equaliser inevitable once the first goal conceded.

Arsène recognised that weakness post-match but as of yet, has not addressed it. Koscielny looked more assured, confidence borne from some extra gym work perhaps? It is a fair assumption that he and Thomas Vermaelen will form the first half pairing today, Djourou resting following a full 90 minutes yesterday.

Elsewhere, Carl Jenkinson filled most with confidence that he can deputise for Bacary Sagna, his willingness to push forward continually without over-exposing the defence a good sign. Aaron Ramsey scored a peach of a goal following good work by Carlos Vela but was not able to dominate the midfield in the way that Cesc would. Samir Nasri’s failure to step into the breach indicates that a change in style would most likely follow the captain’s departure unless a direct replacement is sourced, an unlikely outcome.

Gervinho and Arshavin both worked the flanks well in the first half, interchanging frequently so as not to let defenders settle but most joy came when they were on their notional sides of the pitch, the former and Jenkinson worked well in the attacking third.

As for the rest, adequate is a word I would use to sum it all up. Traore did well in some situations, not so well in others. van Persie needs to shake the rust from his set pieces but was sharp as a tack for his goal, a good sign. Chamakh, positive but needs to develop a more ruthless streak similar to the one that brought ten goals in his first seventeen Arsenal games.

In fact that point could be levelled at the whole of the team. Too often in key areas, sideways passes is met with resistance, neat flicks, twists and turns are baulked by visiting defences. A bit more responsibility in shooting from distance or even early needs to be taken. That does not mean every time, simply that more variety needs to be introduced.

As for Boca, Arsène wanted to see what style they brought to The Emirates. It was not so much style, more stereotype. Ask anyone what they expect of an Argentine side and its a fair chance that they will say a mix of Sir Alf’s words and Maradona. It was like watching a skilful Manchester United side with all of the bitching and whining that went on at the referee. Still fair play to their manager, I did not believe it possible to find a winger who was shorter and fatter than Andy Reid but Boca have such a man.

Post-match, Arsène broke out his Mary MacGregor songbook when speaking of his captain being torn between two lovers, the Spanish media believe it is only the small Mata of Juan signing before Cesc leaves. Oh, that and the £5m the Catalan will forgo to leave Arsenal. The Daily Heil believes that we are all stupid; there can be no other reason for them really expecting us to fall for the old ‘Arry’s Gonna Sign Someone Good gag. I’m still waiting for someone to link Adebayor back to the club. Perhaps Arsène could do that to take some of the heat off Samir Nasri…

Arsène declared that he was going to do business sooner rather than later, tantalisingly offering the thought that he is going to be spending somewhere between £10m and £30m on a player or two. Or perhaps that’s £6.50 on players and the rest on private resuscitation facilities, the thought of money leaving the club too much for him to bear…

That’s harsh to be fair to the manager as the purchases will be funded by sales although how Nicklas Bendtner and Emmanuel Eboue can be on the verge of leaving the club when Arsenal are not close to agreeing deals is an interesting example of manager-speak.

AC Milan want Cesc to leave Arsenal who want Eden Hazard to leave Lille. There’s not much chance of either deal happening so things really are quiet in media land. Henri Lansbury received a vote of confidence despite speculation about his future – presumably he’ll sign for Norwich or Brighton this week. Joel Campbell meanwhile could not resist the overtures of Big Richard Law(insert your own gags here) and will sign for £1m when Costa Rica fly home from Columbia.

And Theo Walcott is going to miss the start of the season, a story which sums up nicely how badly the media misinterpreted the manager’s words yesterday.

’til Tomorrow.

A Bridge Too Far For Arsenal Captain & More

The Emirates Cup this weekend and tomorrow’s return of Thierry Henry dominates the skyline. A shame that Arsenal are playing NY Red Bulls from the footballing perspective, Boca and PSG offer more competition in that respect. Henry offers more money and sentiment, the latter in short supply in football’s modern era.

Against that backdrop, Cesc Fabregas will not be taking part this weekend. It seems his absence is mental rather than physical. Arsene observed,

He won’t be involved as he’s not settled with us at the moment and is coming back from an injury. All the speculation around his position must be sorted out soon. But there is only one deadline, on August 31. The other deadline is for us to get everybody focused, the players who are really committed to the club. I cannot help the other situation because it does not only depend on me, it depends on the players and on the other clubs.

We presume that the problem is that he wants to leave. This is, I am sure, the root of the problem yet this summer has ensured that his disappointment is more acute, knowing Barcelona do not have the money to fund the deal, certain that he is not their priority. The latter is possibly as damaging mentally as the frustration of still being an Arsenal player.

There is one more issue left to resolve, one that Wenger alluded to although not highlighting the real problem,

He is our captain and we have to make sure he is really focused on being with us

That is correct. And if he remains an Arsenal player, this weekend makes it – to my mind – impossible for him to remain captain if the role means anything any longer. As captain he is expected to perform at the highest level, to lead by example. This is neither. Fortunately it is only a friendly weekend yet it is crucial for him being match fit.

And where does this end? Is Fabregas really going to be allowed to miss the whole of August? If that is the case, Wenger must be ruthless now for the player’s own good. Get the board to set a deadline now – give the Catalans a week to resolve. If by the time Arsenal take to the pitch in Lisbon, an acceptable offer has not been made, no deal can be struck.

Equally, the player must take to the pitch and show professionalism in doing so. If he cannot resolve the scenario mentally, hand the captaincy to someone else. Fabregas though must show mental strength and I find it incredibly disappointing that he is not taking part this weekend. He is letting Arsenal Football Club down.

His nominated replacement with the club is Aaron Ramsey. That puts too much pressure on the Welshman at the moment but he is ready to step up to the plate,

I think it comes naturally to Cesc now. It is something I have worked on. Our midfield rotate. Normally one sits and the other two are slightly in front. I’ve been playing with Alex Song and Jack Wilshere in pre-season and I think we have a pretty good understanding.

Pretty good needs to be outstanding for a successful season. Yet I have no fears for putting Ramsey into the midfield in Fabregas’ absence in the short-term but question whether he is ready for a full season it that role? As Ramsey himself notes, Cesc is ahead of him in speed of thought but he is getting there. The thing to remember is that Ramsey will bring different qualities to the side.

Elsewhere, nothing has moved. Juan Mata‘s signing has become less straightforward in media terms with Tottenham reportedly in the running for the Spaniard. They, it seems, have put their money where their mouth is and made a formal offer. Arsenal it seems must get their act together before Monday if they want to sign him on the (relatively) cheap with the price likely to rise beyond €21m at that point. Phil Jagielka is a definite target and moves are afoot to make that happen whilst

We’ll catch up with everything else tomorrow but alas time has defeated me today for The Emirates beckons for myself and No.2 son.

’til Tomorrow.

One Of Us Speaks: The Parable of Robin van Persie

Big Al’s back and talking Dutch Masters

After falling foul of a strict corrective regime under Bert van Marwijk at Feyenoord, Robin van Persie slowly found his feet with us in a supportive environment where great care was taken to ensure that he was happy and comfortable on and off the pitch. As soon as he was treated like a grown up, he started acting like one. On the cusp of a season in which he’ll likely play a more central role than ever, his story offers a welcome antidote to the idea that we’re too soft with our young, budding talents.

This is from November 2004:

The way Arsenal take care of young players is incredible; they look after your family, they make sure your house or flat is in the right area. They have special people who are looking after us all the time. At London Colney ’s training ground you get trained to live the life of a top sportsman

Eight years ago, van Persie was the enfant terrible of Dutch football. He left his boyhood club Excelsior Rotterdam at 16 after falling out with the coaching staff. Then after breaking into the first team at local rivals Feyenoord in 2001, he spent much of the following three seasons in trouble with authoritarian manager Bert van Marwijk. Much of the drama sprung from being forced to play on the left wing and adhere to the manager’s rigid tactics.

A trawl through the Feyenoord news archives from this time is like reading the school reports of a nascent supervillain. When he wasn’t lighting up De Kuip with moments of breathtaking skill, he was prone to bouts of on-pitch indiscipline. These included baiting the manager in his goal celebrations, refusing to warm up properly during a crucial Champions League qualifier with Fenerbahce, openly trashing the team system, and consequently kicking his heels on the bench or moping around for the youth team.

He was also a divisive figure outside the club. One of the most dramatic incidents came when he turned out for the reserves at Ajax’s training ground, De Toekomst on 15th April 2004 – a dark day for Dutch football. At the final whistle of a customarily heated encounter between the old rivals, scores of Ajax hooligans stormed the pitch, and you can guess who they singled out for special treatment.

As the mob closed in, teammate Jorge Acuña jumped to Van Persie’s aid and spent the next few days in hospital recovering from bruised ribs and concussion. Robin took a couple of blows, swung back, and was eventually shielded from the melee by Marco van Basten, his future Oranje coach. After the incident he thanked Acuña for intervening, the Chilean midfielder shrugged it off with, “You’d have done the same for me”.

Prior to that, Feyenoord had been trying to find a new home for their precocious but troubled talent, who now had just over a year left to run on his contract. Mysteriously there weren’t many foreign takers for this young tearaway. Steve Rowley had been watching him on and off since his breakthrough in 2001, was convinced that he could be set straight and advised Arsenal to bid. A £5 million offer was rejected. That appeared to be the end of it, and PSV emerged as new favourites.

Even more strangely, after the brawl at De Toekomst, even domestic interest ebbed away. Feyenoord’s asking price was slashed and a new £2.75 million bid from Arsenal was accepted in May 2004.

It’s interesting to read that certain physical aspects of a player at a young age, e.g. running stance, are identified as an indication of how they will develop in their playing career. Could the same apply to mental development? Were the aggression and cockiness of van Persie then, a precursor to the focus and self-belief of today? Was this what Rowley had in mind when he ignored the cloud hanging over Van Persie’s young career?

van Marwijk followed RvP out the door that summer. Despite winning the UEFA Cup with the club in 2002, his lack of success in nurturing Van Persie – regarded by many as a superior talent to the emergent Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben – was seen as one of his major failures.

When it came to filling that precast bad boy role, RvP was a bit of a disappointment in his early Arsenal years. There was a silly red card against Southampton, a harsh sending off in the Champions League against FC Thun, and not much else, despite plenty of provocation most memorably from Chris Morgan and Andy Todd.

On the technical side, RvP’s career has come full-circle. In Feyenoord’s youth teams he started out as a shadow-striker with freedom to roam, which is very similar to the role he now plays, after spending a number of years on the right for Arsenal and the Netherlands. The video below is from 2000:

The technique is familiar – that unbending posture and implausible sense of balance. The big difference is free-kicks; his efforts eleven years ago were a little less violent and a little more lofted. Even when you look back at many of his classic efforts for Arsenal, like at Fulham or at home to Wigan in the Carling Cup, he strikes the ball with a degree of power but didn’t bludgeon them the way he does today. What’s also interesting is that his prowess from dead-ball situations is inversely related to his development as a goal-scorer. Could there be a certain quality that he’s cultivated as an efficient finisher that might hinder his direct free-kick taking?

It’s a minor quibble, as RvP as shown that he’s more than just a goal machine, with 26 of his 25 PL career assists coming in the last three seasons. This campaign should see yet more creative and goal-scoring responsibility as he drops deep to pick out runs by two of the fastest wide forwards around, and finishes moves with characteristic speed of thought and immaculate technique.

And there you have it – a blog about Robin van Persie that didn’t once mention injuries. What? Oh damn.

’til Tomorrow.

Arshavin Aims, Defence Claims & Transfer Gossip Adds Up

A couple of years back involvement in senior World Cup qualifiers and playing in the European Under-21 tournament weeks later wrecked Theo Walcott’s season. Yesterday Wenger found out that it was not actually playing in the junior tournament that caused the problem, the merest hint of it is the problem for Theo.

The manager did not comment on whether the injury was serious. Once Arsenal’s Medical Team get their hands on him, it will be. Coming on the heels of Conor Henderson‘s unfortunate knee injury, the Arsenal pre-season is well and truly underway.

The pre-season is full of target setting by players. Normally it is Theo Walcott who wants to get 15 goals in a season – narrowly missed last time around – but Walcott is only targeting being fit for August at the moment. The scoring tally baton passed to Andrey Arshavin.

Despite 10 goals and 17 assists last time around, the Russian wants more,

My own target is simple – I would like to score 15 goals in total

It is a total he has only reached twice since starting his career in 2000, the last time five seasons ago. A tall order…

The Russian is frequently criticised for his lack of appetite for defensive work. Sometimes there is no doubt that is a valid complaint, others he is simply a scapegoat for others failings. However, Arshavin’s work will be more visible if his other claims are true,

I think we will get stronger and stronger. In particular I think our work on set-pieces, both attacking and defending, will be better. We’ll also play a pressing game – if we do that well, I’m sure you’ll see an improved team

I look forward to that one. I hope that Arshavin has been putting in a shift or two working on delivery from corners or free kicks. If the Russian was the target man in training exercises, no wonder Arsenal defenders appear to be wearing lead boots when it comes to jumping. Even on tip-toes, Djourou would probably reach a cross before a leaping Arshavin.

Wenger is often called out on his comments about the ease of practising defending. A spur of the moment defence of his players, it is as porous an argument as his charges when defending a set-piece. There was obviously a problem, one that had a hugely negative impact on the season. Halving that total whilst not shipping any more from open play, would bring the goals against column down to below 30. That gives the club a real fighting chance of winning the title.

Genuinely though, I hope no-one has shirked the defensive element. The only time I want to see comments about 27 goals conceded from set-pieces in 2010-11, is when it is preceded by “which is a vast improvement on the“.

The corrupt world of Fifa is once more dominating the back pages, Karl-Heinz Ruminegge is revolting (insert your own joke here)…Arsenal though are putting up a sterling effort in keeping their column inch total running at an all-time high. Aguerro? Pah! We’ll have three stories running at once. An interesting trend is developing in the reporting of transfers. No longer is the fee all that matters, no longer is a simple note of the estimated weekly wage enough. No, now the two are combined and football has gone mad! A £38m signing is now an £85m deal if £200k weekly wages are factored in.

You know that once the window closes, the total spent on transfers will now be three times higher thanks to the inclusion of wage deals in the final reckoning.

Which turns us nicely to the morning’s transfer dealings. Nicklas Bendtner‘s agent and full-time dad reckons the Dane has loads of offers, so many that he couldn’t possibly name all of the clubs for fear of using up all of the available space on your newspaper or website. How about just telling us one then? No….? Oh….

Kyle Bartley meanwhile is off to a Premier League club and not to play in lower levels such as The Championship or even worse, the SPL. This is all after he has signed a new deal and told us how much he is looking forward to breaking into the Arsenal first XI.

And so to our Spanish chums. Cesc? Nothing new at all. Well, other than Juan Mata might be the key to unlocking the deal but that’s just Sport‘s view, no-one else agrees. They think it will be the lack of cash in the Barcelona piggy bank which scuppers the deal.

As for Mata being Cesc’s replacement, only Jeremy Wilson seems to think that the Spaniard might be a more logical replacement for Samir Nasri. That’s hardly surprising though, no-one can agree on the fee! From those who believe that deal is not signed, sealed and delivered to those who do, we have a range of prices to suit all budgets: £13m (although not even Harry Pratt would put his name to that one!), £13.5m, £15m. All of those no doubt come with add-ons which is newspaper talk for “if we get the total wrong, we can blame the add-ons“.

Daily Heil? A nailed-on, real man’s £17.5m. Bosh, none of your variables (ooh, hark at you Mr La-di-Da!) here. The Spanish national and Valencian press though is talking it up with fees of €22m and €23m plus Chelsea and Tottenham in the mix.

Today’s highest bid prize though goes to Daily Express HQ, £22m the gig although that might be the same as AS if the exchange rate collapsed, I haven’t looked. It might be inclusive of wages, in which case that pay structure is being really rigidly adhered to.

Finally, Having apparently lost out to Arsenal for Mata despite The Daily Heil protestations to the contrary, Spurs are now hoping to lose out to Arsenal for Christopher Samba for exactly the same reasons: money and the Champions League. Who says finishing fourth isn’t a prize worth having…

’til Tomorrow.

Can The Squad Really Learn From Failure & Transfer Mata’s

Tomas Rosicky re-opened the wounds of last season, offering the view that the lessons will have to be learned,

I think we are stronger, firstly because what happened last season, the experience of it all, will help us. It was disappointing because we were close to winning something and the last two months were not good. But all this stuff has to push us more and more because we are capable of winning something. It must be like this.

Rosicky understands the desire of supporters to win a trophy and believes it is shared by the squad as well. However, I am not convinced by his belief that the pain of last season will make the players stronger. If you were cynical you could interpret the phrase ‘It must be like this‘ as almost exasperation. I suspect it was meant more in terms of determination.

Contrary to received wisdom he does not believe that the Carling Cup final defeat was as detrimental as is believed,

Setbacks like the Carling Cup do affect you but you have to go on and move on. It was in our hands and I still believe it will be in our hands this season if we produce the football we played before. The experience will be important and I hope everyone has gained from what happened last season.

In isolation, Birmingham’s victory would not necessarily have a lasting impact. However, coming in close proximity to exits from the Champions League and FA Cups, the cumulative effect was more emphatic.

Obviously Rosicky and the other players need to believe that the gain has come from pain but I am not sure. Arsenal squads have become used to failure. For some, the collapse at the end of the season was not the first time they have witnessed it at first hand. The strength of character to prevent it happening was not there, the lessons of previous failures not learned.

It is not just the mental strength, it is the tactical awareness, defending as a team rather than the back four in isolation. Not losing crucial players at key moments is the major lesson to learn, not believing them entirely when they claim to be fit ahead of big matches. There were many aspects to the collapse and learning those lessons will be tough. A sign of growing maturity if they manage to do so.

Can you guess what it is yet?

Spot The Difference

No? Well, the one on the left was from last summer and the one on the right from last night. They are pages that were hastily taken down from the Fifa website. The only thing that they had in common? Both contained interviews in which Xavi decreed that Cesc should be allowed to join Barcelona. This is the same Xavi you will recall, who said it was ‘absurd‘ that Arsène had got bent out of shape about his recent comments. Contrition and all that.

Fifa, at least, recognise the inappropriateness of their posts. Arsenal do not, the absolutely useless and unutterably pointless Mediawatch page still survives. I wonder if they will comment on David Cameron’s incisive intervention in the negotiations over the Arsenal captain?

Cesc meanwhile will tell Arsenal this week that the €27m bid from Barcelona is enough for his transfer to be completed. I just cannot be arsed to be contemptuous of the report. It is amusing that the media presume that Cesc only has to click his fingers – or hand in a transfer request – and Arsenal will jump. It seems that the much-vaunted Catalan objective to sign Cesc is as likely to happen as Juan Mata to Arsenal – thanks to @JamieDalton82 for the link. Or Santi Cazorla‘s signing for that matter. Or should that be Mata?

Samir Nasri meanwhile has told the club he will stay for one more year. I wonder how long it took for Daily Star picture library staff to find the contemplative photograph used to accompany the claims. In no way was Nasri’s acquiescence to the situation influenced by the knowledge that he would be able to command an astonishingly large signing on fee next summer.

Of course a trophy might genuinely change his mind. He may even sign a new contract with the understanding that he can go once Arsenal get a fee that suits. All speculation, very little fact emerging. However, Nasri has used up a large portion, if not all, of the goodwill he had built up and you suspect it may never return. He will be supported and encouraged whilst in an Arsenal shirt but you know that the first substandard performance is going to send a welter of criticism in his direction.

He will need thicker skin than he displayed on Twitter earlier in the summer.

’til Tomorrow.

Arsenal: Serial Over-achievers Or Par For The Course

Muppet’s On A Mission sounds like a Jim Henson film but no, our resident Muppet got a bee in his bonnet and this is the outcome…

I recently had a Twitter debate with Tim Payton, spokesman for the Arsenal Supporters Trust (AST). I pointed out that despite our barren period, in my view Wenger had over-achieved over the last few years. Tim disagreed, believing Wenger has achieved par on the basis of net transfer spend and wage costs. The latter in his view was as crucial as the former. He passed me a link which demonstrated Arsenal were 17th in a points per £ spend in the last year on Premier League results.

So what is the truth; serial over-achievers or par for the course?

The Metrics

In order to fully assess performance, we must factor in our Champions League and cup performances. The difficulty is in calculating the extent of the achievement compared with the Premier League.

Premier League performance is easy to measure. If Arsenal finish the league with 80 points and the combined salary & transfer spend comes to £100m, then it cost £1.25 million per point. If Manchester United finish with 80 points and their combined salary & transfer spend comes to £200m, their cost is £2.5 million per point. Arsenal are more efficient in this instance.

The problem comes with determining metrics for cups. Adopting a points-based system with a weighting which reflected the relative importance of the cup competitions seems most equitable. The Champions League is of equal importance to the Premier League whilst the Europa League and FA Cup rank as half as important. This leaves the League Cup, worth half the points again.

For the Champions League, in order to achieve parity with the Premier League in terms of an achievement, I decided to allocate 90 points to the winner, on the basis that this is an approximate total which the Premier League champions will achieve. Each round from the 2nd stage is worth 20 further points, starting from the 2nd stage base of 10, with no points for failing at the group phase.

The table below outlines the scoring for each competition:

Round	Champions League	Europa League / FA Cup	League Cup
Winner	90	45	22.5
Runner-Up	70	35	11.25
Semi Finals	50	25	5.6
Quarter Finals	30	15	-
2nd Stage	10	5	-

The Competition and period.

The teams selected for comparison were Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Spurs. Apologies to fans of other Premier League clubs who are not included in this, particularly Everton who have done fantastically well on their budget. I had to limit the number of teams for comparison because of the sheer amount of number-crunching involved.

For two reasons the comparison period is the last six years. Firstly, it is the period during which Wenger has been heavily criticised for not winning a trophy. Secondly, it also fits quite nicely as I have 6 years worth of data.

The Sources

The wages data comes from a website called Football Intelligence. They say their data source is company accounts.

The Net Transfer spend is from a German website called TransferMarkt. I do not believe this data source is company accounts so it may include details of other related transfer spending, such as agents fees.

On the other hand, because the data simply comprises of the net transfer dealings carried out by each club year on year, it is an accurate barometer of performance vs net transfer spend. This is useful because clubs have differing accounting periods, and sometimes carry over transfer deals to the next accounting period, which would distort any comparison.

The Data

View this document on Scribd

 

The year on year data is now summarised further as follows:

Club	Total Spend (£m)	Total Points	Spend Per Point (£m)	Expected Rank Per Spend	Actual Rank
Man Utd	744.0	974.6	0.76	2	1
Arsenal	599.2	681.1	0.88	5	2
Chelsea	1,123.9	745.4	1.51	1	5
Man City	888.1	413.6	2.15	3	6
Spurs	513.0	483.4	1.06	6	4
Liverpool	668.7	668.0	1.00	4	3

Interpretation of above:

Manchester United come out on top, not only with the number of points but their actual rank. Arsenal finish 3rd in the points table, narrowly above Liverpool. But we are 2nd in terms of our spend efficiency. Each point costing £0.88 million.

Chelsea and Manchester City are the least efficient despite the former’s trophy haul and because of the latter’s spending to excess.

Conclusions

If data is deemed to be accurate then Arsenal are overachieving based on their net spend.

The other conclusion is that the weighting system is fair. One could argue that a more meritorious weighting system should be used, for example like that in Grand Prix scoring, which is 25 points for a win, 18 for 2nd, etc. Where the reward is greater for actually coming 1st. This weighting system is based on more absolute figures, and not trophies.

If one is to look at the performance vs number of trophy count, the picture is bleak for Arsenal fans, as there are no trophies in the period 2006-2011.

Club	Net Spend 2006-11 (£m)	No. of Trophies	Spend per Trophy (£m)
Chelsea	1,123.9	6	187.3
Man Utd	744.0	8	93.0
Arsenal	599.2	0	N/A
Spurs	513.0	1	513.0
Liverpool	668.7	1	668.7
Man City	888.1	1	888.1

On this metric, we have been outperformed by all of our main rivals.

The general conclusions is that we have just have been unlucky not to win a trophy. We know this from our 3 finals and the close finish in 2007-2008 in the Premier League. We have spent more than Spurs, yet they have won a trophy. On the points metrics, we have outperformed everybody apart from Manchester United, yet they have all won trophies.

Chelsea and Manchester United Dominance

Over a 6 year period, Chelsea have spent approx £524 million than Arsenal, equating to an incredible £87 million more per season. United have spent £245 million more, £40.8 million more per season. These two clubs have won 13 out of the 18 domestic trophies over this period.

This data hints that there is a strong correlation between expenditure and trophies but that conclusion is spurious if one examines the figures for City. Their expenditure has been carried out by different managers with different priorities. It emphasises the lack of quality in their playing staff as a base point, other clubs such as Arsenal, United and Chelsea had stronger starting points.

Silver Lining The Cloud?

The data indicates that Arsenal would gain a higher return if they invested more heavily in the playing squad, which in turn would lead to silverware. However there is a contradictory theory, supported by Tottenham whose sole trophy came from spending the least. Equally, City prove thus far that spending heavily does not necessarily yield a comparable trophy return.

It is hard to pigeonhole City’s spend. If it leads to a trophy-winning period, their investment seems sound. Anything less and the folly of their owners will be exposed.

There is little argument that Arsenal should have won a trophy by now based. Like City, the data can seem anomalous. However it is clear that Wenger has over-achieved in keeping the club in the top four thus far as opposed to achieving that which is expected.

’til Tomorrow.

Cesc And Nasri – Tapping Up Is Easy To Do

This week sees the reported deadline given to Barcelona pass. If by the weekend, they have not met Arsenal’s asking price then there is no deal for the services of Cesc Fábregas. This quiet Monday feels like the calm before the storm, pressure growing in the media over the coming days until the saga ends, one way or another.

The futures of Cesc and Nasri are entwined. It is inconceivable that both will leave this summer. If one is to go, I think it will be Nasri for I do not believe that Barcelona will come up with the money needed to sign Cesc. They have made clear this summer that their priorities lie elsewhere. They have made clear this summer that theirs is a limited transfer pot, unlike previous seasons. Reports this morning underline the relative poverty, suggesting the first payment on Alexis Sanchez’s transfer fee is not being made until 2012.

Add this to their laughable attempts to reduce the fee for Cesc by including deals for Bellerin and Toral, their financial picture feels complete.

Crucial for Barcelona this summer was to re-emphasize to Cesc that he is wanted by them. This prevents his signature on a Madrid or Milanese contract. Even though the player has made it clear he wants to return home, if he left Arsenal for another club, his services would be stratospheric in cost for the Catalans in the future.

Next year, the fee will be no different but the appetite for Cesc’s services might have improved amongst their support which seems split. Xavi will be 33 in 2012/13 season, old for a footballer at a top club. Cesc will be the star signing of that summer, a perception easier to manipulate as a seemless transition between generations. Especially at a fee of £40m.

The Arsenal management need some work on their transfer activities – “It’s not the number of players, it’s the quality“, according to the manager – with false dawns becoming the norm. However over Cesc and Nasri, they are playing it absolutely correctly. No-one should be surprised, the hardline taken now is an extension of those taken with Vieira and Henry.

How the Catalans have conducted themselves is debatable. Arsène is under no illusions that they and representatives of the Mancunian clubs have transgressed. Asked about tapping up and specifically relating to Nasri, he replied,

What do you think? It is a rule that has to be reviewed. It doesn’t necessarily go through the player or the agent but I think it is a rule that has to be reviewed. It’s not really respected

It is a grey area but ultimately Fifa statutes are definitive about the fact that tapping up only occurs with complicity from the player or agent.

Nasri’s head appears to have been turned by money on offer elsewhere, that can only have happened as a result of tapping up. He is not free to talk to other clubs, neither are his representatives. Likewise Cesc and his agents. Yet they appear to have done so. Proving it is an altogether different matter which is why Arsenal do not complain to the authorities about this. Let us not forget that the Ashley Cole affair only came to light as a result of a newspaper investigation, not because Arsenal complained.

Not that there is much point, as Fifa do not really know what they are doing.

I do think we get confused about tapping up. Much of the media talk is softening up. Players, such as Evra, spouting off is hardly going to persuade someone to sign for Manchester United. It does however make the prospect more appealing, knowing that publicly at least, the players are open to the newcomer’s arrival.

Equally, Wenger could be open to accusations of tapping up. Asked about Hazard and other players in recent seasons, the manager has responded positively about them without committing to any current or future offer.

In the current climate, we like to think of Arsenal as pure but there is little reason to believe that Arsenal do not circumvent the rules like everyone else. It is just that the club is more discreet than others. We, supporters, need to distinguish between the genuine tapping up and media whoring. All too often it is the latter which raises the collective blood pressure.

’til Tomorrow.