Fulham (H) Preview – Three Points Required

Fulham pitch up at The Emirates, the return of the fixture that suggested this season would not be quite so straightforward as the hope that the summer months brings, suggested.

Injuries once more dominate, no-one of note returning but unsurprisingly, an returnee has dropped out. Abou Diaby knacked his calf in midweek and rather like Eduardo, is missing straight away. But that was quickly superseded by yesterday’s news that Diaby is fit once more.

Andrei Arshavin will return to the side following his midweek rest, perhaps more prepared for a longer turn-out than the sixty minutes or so he got against Sunderland. Certainly, he will hoping for a more productive outcome for the team. That will not necessarily be so straightforward although it would be nice if Fulham rolled over in the same manner that they did at Old Trafford recently.

I would not envisage Wenger making too many changes from midweek, perhaps other than Arshavin in for Eboue and Song for Diaby, surely Arsene will not want to risk aggravating the Frenchman’s injury from which he is quickly recovered. Either will be a good replacement, Song and Denilson’s efforts acknowledged by their captain:

I’ve played with both of them, of course, and I can say they work really hard, they always give their best and are very honest players. At Arsenal there’s a lot of pressure because we are a big club but from my perspective, and from outside, I think they are doing well

Denilson has received some recognition for his recent performances and it would be nice to see him pushing further forward with Nasri and Arshavin, Song’s natural defensive game helping this. Others may well (and do) disagree but I personally believe Song is a good squad player, potentially developing into a solid midfielder.

The team will probably be something along the lines of:

Almunia; Sagna, Toure, Gallas, Clichy; Arshavin, Denilson, Song, Nasri; van Persie, Bendtner

A win is vital to close the gap and with Villa playing on Sunday, it is the chance to put real pressure on them by closing the gap to three points. It is at this point of the season that Villa will either crumble or respond positively; all Arsenal can do is win their games.

Cesc also spoke more sense, as per normal, earlier this week:

It is not realistic to look at the league title now. You can never say never of course, but at the moment we would not be intelligent to be looking right to the top of the league. To be intelligent now is to go game by game and think about who is directly in front of us. Now we have to make sure we put a run of wins together and don’t lose more points. Chelsea and Aston Villa will drop points, of that I am sure, and that is why we need to be ready to capitalise at the right time

The failure to capitalise in recent weeks has been a stark reminder of the task ahead for the remainder of the season. Had we won the last two fixtures, the gap would have been four points. The thin line between success and failure highlighted by those results.

Manuel Almunia has backed up the point that Bacary Sagna made post-Sunderland. The right back said:

We are a young team and we have changed our style. We don’t rush forward as much anymore. We looked at what was going wrong and the reasons behind why we were conceding a lot of goals. We wanted to continue with the pace we displayed last season, but it was not helping us. So we have changed our style of play and we have not lost more games because of that…The most important thing is not to concede goals.

It has been the key element in building an unbeaten run, a tighter defence than previously displayed. That may well be helped by the renewed confidence and vigour being displayed by Toure and Gallas in the centre.

Almunia elaborated on the balance that needs to be found between the two styles Sagna spoke of:

Before, we probably used to create a few more chances and also we would finish those chances quicker. Now we are spending a bit more time to get a final shot. The players realise the fans deserve more from us and maybe some of the players are feeling more pressure at the moment at home because we are not winning games…The team in general, defensively, are doing very well. We now need to find that nice balance where we are tight at the back but get the goals.

There are two elements to what Almunia is saying. Yes, the goalscoring problems exist and they need to address that. With Adebayor likely to return against Roma, and Eduardo for the cup tie against Burnley, there is no doubt that Bendtner needs to start scoring for the sake of his seemingly limitless confidence but more importantly, to justify his claim for a starting line-up place. Without goals, it matters not that the Dane’s movement is good, it is hard to look at him as a short-term replacement for Adebayor or even someone to put pressure on the players ahead of him. At the end of the day, scoring is his fundamental role in the side at the moment.

The second aspect of Almunia’s comments again echo Sagna‘s last weekend. The crowd on Tuesday were more supportive of the team than last Saturday. Davebluez highlighted the difference between the two matches, the latter waiting to be entertained, the former behind the team from the start. Personally, I have always believed that the crowd should be behind the team from the off, rather than waiting for the team to lift the crowd. It does not always work this way and that is nothing new to The Emirates, it happened at Highbury and had been that way long before the EPL came into existence.

A reminder that ATVO is free today and you need to log on to the Arsenal.com site beforehand. You can find out more here, and enter the prize draw for a free six month subscription at the same time by leaving a comment. Please make them constructive as the ATVO team want to improve the ‘programme’ for the future.

Finally, you can subscribe by email to the blog by clicking here. Enjoy the match wherever you watch it, back with a match review tomorrow lunchtime. ’til Then.

Interim Results – You Got It, They Want It

The interim financials of the plc were published yesterday to a mixed reception, depending on your viewpoint they were either positive or containing a worrying level of cash being tied up in the property development ‘arm’ of the Arsenal Group. Whichever way you look at it, the economic trends and realities of the past twelve months have turned a ‘cash cow’ into a potential white elephant, a millstone upon which the fortunes of the football club may yet be hamstrung. That view is understandable in a climate that has seen the traditional English model of investing in property to make a quick buck (or more appropriately, a pound) thrown into some disarray.

Is the picture so bad? Whatever may be written or said is subject to spin, interpretations depending on your general outlook and I would not chastise or condemn someone for being concerned over this aspect of the ‘business’. Despite being ring-fenced, The Arsenal will always be synonymous with a football club; it is the reason for being, the reason anyone gives a damn about it. The truth of this aspect is that no-one will be allowed to rest easy from the media perspective until the homes are all sold. Even then, sniping about ‘losses’ suffered through falling property values will be regurgitated by those seeking to destabilise.

The development has been fortunate is some respects. There have, according to the report, been failed completions in single digits. With 180 units sold, that would mean a maximum of 5% failure, which if maintained, would mean that in addition to the 60 unsold, another 35 or so could be added, a stock of 100 in round numbers. Even with this level of properties remaining, the loans surrounding the redevelopment would be cleared and funds could be available for future use by the club. It would, even in trying times, be a vindication of the project.

The problem with anything regarding events to come is that much is based on assumptions. Had the board known how the economy was going to downturn, they may have followed a different path. They did not know and this is the course that must be followed. There may be bad news further down the road; by the same token, the opposite may hold true. We do not know but more importantly, nor do the desperately unhappy hacks who report on such things.

Revenues are up but perhaps the more telling information would be whether the volumes that are sold in the retail outlets are up or if this ‘static’ revenue operation is being funded through increased selling prices? If it is the latter, a plateau will soon be reached or contraction of this channel will be seen. Such movements are not core to Arsenal but indicators of how the current recession may trend in the future.

If they do get worse, the club will be seeking to maximise income but will be hamstrung over ticket price increases to a certain extent, particularly if inflation is lower. The cost of attending is high by Premier League standards and thresholds for the attendees are different due to individual circumstances. The most likely way of increasing revenues is through broadcasting. Whilst the clubs are tied to the Sky deal until, I think, 2013, thereafter who is to say that individual bargaining will not come into play. If that happens, Arsenal would probably be a winner.

More ominously for English football, recent comments from an AC Milan director (sorry, I cannot find the link but it was reported in The Guardian) suggest that a closed European league is still being discussed by the G14 group of clubs, despite the winding down of that group, formally at least.

Finally, thanks to those who voted for the blog in the Football Fans Census – voting for the second round takes place here and closes at midnight (GMT) tonight. Also, a reminder that ATVO have a free day tomorrow for the Fulham match; those leaving comments on the relevant post will be entered into a draw, the prize for which is a free six-month subscription. If you fancy chancing your arm, click here.

’til Tomorrow.

ATVO Free Fulham Coverage & Win Subscription

From ATVO:

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Coverage starts at 2.15pm on February 28 and you can send in your comments to our commentary team of Dan Roebuck and Arsenal legend Ray Parlour now at www.arsenal.com/studio.

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Here Comes The Weekend With KT And The Flats

The interim financials for the six months (I’ll post some observations tomorrow on them) to November 2008 have been released which was the cue for a ‘timely’ piece in Daily Telegraph-speak over concerns about the property slump and the possible negative impact it may have upon the club’s finances. Quoting the ubiquitous ‘club source’ – probably someone they emailed having trawled the blogs / websites for a negative opinion – the point is ‘they should have stuck to what they know, smarty pants aren’t I with the benefit of hindsight‘ type of comment, one that is guaranteed to inflame.

It is too early to comment on that but Lord Peter acknowledges the reality that the money they hoped will come in is going to take longer to arrive. This is the crux of it and more importantly, how will that impact upon loan repayments, etc. The next twelve months will show whether the genuine concern held by many is based on a solid foundation or in an area of subsidence.

Onto matters on the pitch. Kolo Toure has made up with William Gallas, whose cousin is incidentally in the French Six Nations squad this weekend, and is apparently settled on and off the pitch at the club:

Everything is at the end now. It is finished and in the past. I am delighted to be at the club, I love Arsenal. I have been here for seven years, it is the club of my heart. William and I are used to playing together and last season we lost very few games when we were both in the team. We know each other really well and we are happy to play together.

I don’t know about you but an image of the two hitmen in Diamonds Are Forever has sprung to mind when thinking that Gallas and Toure playing together. A legacy, I think, of an alcohol-fuelled early morning finish.

Back to Toure. It is noticeable that his form has improved this year with his restoration to the team. Since his return from the ACN last winter, he had been out of sorts and it is crucial to the squad that he remains, the last remnant of The Invincibles and a wealth of experience. That Manchester City were the only team linked with him surprised me in that he is a far better player than that. Quite plausibly there were others more ‘media-savvy‘ that City and dealing with him on the QT.

Certainly, a ‘happy’ Gallas / Toure are currently the best combination that Wenger has at his disposal and it has the added benefit of allowing Djourou to develop ‘quietly’ into a world-class replacement for one of them in the coming seasons.

Arsene has brought the squad down to earth, like a glider rather than with a bump:

We don’t think or speculate about the second leg now. We play Fulham, then West Brom on Tuesday [March 3] and then after that Burnley in the FA Cup [on March 8] – only after that do we think about Roma.

In other words, well done but now domestic issues are far more important that the second leg. Given that recent history shows a good performance can quite easily be followed by a drought in front of goal, it is perhaps wise words that the squad would do well to heed.

A win is crucial to put pressure on Villa this weekend, especially as for once we play before them. It is this aspect of the season that may yet see the Midlanders fall out of the top four.

’til Tomorrow.

Victory With A Familiar Refrain

UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 1 – 0 AS Roma

1 – 0 van Persie (37 pen)

Post-match Arsene observed that the only regret that he had was that the margin of victory was only a single goal. Certainly, the team will be looking at the match, acutely embarrassed by some of the misses that they contrived in this fixture. Whether such profligacy in front of goal will be costly remains to be seen.

Criticism by the manager of the lack of urgency in moving the ball forwards on Saturday had to have been worked on in training; the speed and movement left their supposedly superior Italian opponents floundering, chasing shadows or more importantly, lunging at them.

The inclusion of Diaby in the midfield from the start gave some impetus, with the Frenchman’s direct approach providing a driving force from the centre of the pitch. In turn, this appeared to give his colleague’s the confidence to push on. Denilson, Nasri and Eboue were all more forceful in their actions. It led to perhaps the team’s best performance overall against good quality opposition since the visit of Liverpool to The Emirates before Christmas. Yet, despite this, confidence in front of goal remains fragile.

I commented on Saturday’s game that the list of the culprits was a veritable Who’s Who. Last night was no different other than it was Bendtner and Eboue who were guilty of the worst excesses. The former’s miss in the second half undermined his belief that he is worth a starting place ahead of all others. He must convert these chances and in times to come, I have no doubt that he will. Sadly, we are living in the here and now. For Eboue, it was an absolute shame that the ball did not nestle in the net. He had done all of the really hard work beforehand. Anticipation, calmness, thinking about what he was going to do. Everything that encompassed his blistering start at Arsenal as a right back was in that movement. A real pity that having bamboozled the defence, he could not put enough curl on the ball to beat the despairing lunge of the last defender and find the back of the onion bag.

Memories are evoked of the run to Paris in ‘95 and ‘06; single goal home victories without conceding. What is required is that the clean sheets which were so prevalent then be replicated now. Defensively, the back four dealt comfortably with everything that Roma had to offer. And when they did breach, Almunia was up to that, confirming his marked improvement over the past couple of seasons. In particular, his crucial save from Motta with the match goalless may yet prove to be a pivotal moment. The ‘Away Goals’ rule that Arsene was so critical of beforehand may yet prove to be his saviour in the return.

For the goal itself, there can no argument that it was a penalty and cleverly won at that with van Persie drawing a rash trip from behind from Mexes. It begs the question quite what you have to do to be sent off in a Champions League tie. Mexes was already on a yellow card and in England, it is not beyond much doubt that he would have walked. It highlights the differences between domestic and continental referees. Mind you, so does starting the second half with only nine Arsenal players on the pitch. Presumably, the club can appeal Toure’s booking for the technical nature of it was caused by an incorrect decision to kick-off. An English referee would have made certain of the numbers of players. Their speciality in the gaffe’s department is three yellow cards in a World Cup match.

The result was a poke in the eye with a sharp stick for those critics who believed Roma to be vastly better than Arsenal. The pace of the home side’s play left them dishevelled and misshapen. It will be a different match in the second leg with Roma looking to control the game rather than letting Arsenal dominate them. Despite this, the squad should be quietly confident of winning through for they were left with nothing to fear from last night. The important thing is to carry forward the performance to Saturday and take three important points.

It is another good day to be a gooner. ‘til Tomorrow

AS Roma (h) – Champions League Preview

The Champions League provides a welcome distraction to the trials and tribulations surrounding the Premier League unbeaten run. Roma have been widely tipped to dispose of Arsenal over the two legs in much the same way that Milan were last season and both Real Madrid / Juventus were before them. Three goalless draws in a row in the PL and to be honest, a fourth one tonight would not be the end of the world. Indeed, it could be argued that Arsenal’s results in the Stadio Olympico suggest a scoring away leg would see them through.

If my fading memory serves correctly, Roma were the last Italian team to score at Arsenal, Totti salvaging a draw at Highbury several seasons ago. Tonight, it would be no surprise if Arsenal succumbed to the immutable law of the footballing ex- with Julio Baptista being praised for his performances for the Romans. That presumes, of course, that the gladitorial spirit being shown by the Arsenal defence does not hold sway. Boom, Boom.

Arsene has his selection problems, including the irritating absence of Andrei Arshavin. Irritating not least because he has few options on the right hand side of midfield. I am not quite sure why Arsene was so frustrated:

Yes [I am frustrated]. He played in a team that is out of the competition.  The logic is not really obvious. If he can play in the League and FA Cup, why not be qualified in the Champions League?

Whilst Arsene admits that they knew he could not play and the rules of the Champions League are no different from any of the domestic knock-out competitions so in fairness to UEFA, there is quite a lot of logic in the regulations.

Whilst one drops out, another pops in. Abou Diaby returns to the squad and perhaps a starting place at the expense of Alex Song. That is not, in my opinion, a reflection of the Cameroonian’s recent performances, more to eliminate the problem that Wenger saw on Saturday of not getting the ball forwards quickly enough. Certainly Diaby is more dynamic in that respect.

With Eboue coming in on the right, the midfield will have a more ‘functional’ look about it. Crucially tonight, they need to be more effective in their possession, perhaps more basic in the distribution. Keep it simple and move the ball quickly. Creativity will be more reliant upon Denilson and Nasri; perhaps one of the reasons that Denilson appeared to be playing deeper against Sunderland is to free Arshavin on the right. This time there will be cover for the Brazilian to push forward where he is arguably more of a threat to the opposition.

If I have a concern about tonight, it is where the goals are going to come from. van Persie has been the goalscoring threat in 2009 but if he is nullified, Bendtner has to back up his unlimited confidence with some equally high level finishing. Roma’s defence will not be easy for him to breach but then that may suit him, it being more comparable to an international fixture in that respect than the Premier League. He has scored at that level against the Portuguese, Germans and Czech’s at the ‘highest’ level and knows how to find the space when needed. What is needed is perhaps a more conventional forwards role from him this evening – more presence in the box and a little less drifting or dropping deep. At times on Saturday, particularly in the second half, Arsenal simply lacked bodies in the area as the Dane and van Persie sought to create spaces.

Overall, this is a winnable tie for Arsenal. A clean sheet tonight puts Arsenal in the driving seat, even with a goalless draw. However, a win would make matters slightly less pressurised in the second leg. Roma have been on a good run recently but like Arsenal, they are off the pace in domestically. Both sides have plenty to play for which will hopefully make it a decent game. But then does that matter? The results at this stage of this season matter more.

Enjoy the game wherever you are watching it. ’til Tomorrow.

Dropped Points But Not Yet Desperate

Arsenal 0 – 0 Sunderland

It is little wonder that managers become gibbering, demented wrecks on the touchline. Even the most urbane would have been frustrated by the inability of his charges to breach the Sunderland defence.

The day began brightly enough with Villa losing to Chelsea; a win would have seen the gap down to a less impressive four points. As it is, the gap is fifty percent higher and I doubt that anyone can conclusively come up with a reason why. Well, aside from the obvious that Arsenal did not score. And it was not just the forwards who failed in this task. Every area of the team contributed to that, aside from Almunia in the Arsenal goal.

A bizarre performance in some respects. The fluidity of movement was alive, alive-o in the opening forty-five minutes and Sunderland would have had no complaints if the interval had seen a scoreline of 4 – 0 to Arsenal. Listing the misses in that period is a veritable Who’s Who, a compendium of the famous and obscure. Who would, for instance, have thought that Kolo Toure would have been the closest to breaking the deadlock on two occasions, denied by a goalline clearance and a smart stop, low to the ‘keepers right?

Not that the Ivorian was alone in missing the target. Bendtner drew a good save from a difficult header; Arshavin almost launched a thousand puns by shooting just wide, any closer and those minds less tired than this one would have mentioned a post. The Russian went closer still with another effort drawing a save.

Current media crisis talk favourite, Robin van Persie, was most culpable though, lofting his effort wide having timed his run to perfection to escape the defence, offside trap and beat the ‘keeper. You suspect it is not going to be your day when your most in-form striker misses what is for him, a routine finish. At the other end, Almunia dealt comfortably with the three efforts Sunderland sent into his chest.

The second period showed little improvement on the first. Vela was introduced as Arshavin ran out of steam and showed neat movement and footwork, coupled with two horrible misses as perhaps nervousness took hold of him. The frenetic finish saw Gallas and van Persie spurn chances as well.

There were some good performances on Saturday. The defence dealt quite comfortably with all that Sunderland offered. Despite their claims that this was an easy weekend by comparison to previous visits to Arsenal, the facts present a different case. Yet they got a point. The midfield were not dominated despite being outnumbered. Song and Denilson broke things down and started things up, keeping it simple as well as prompting. They complement each other’s styles but in matches such as this, is it too safe a choice by the manager? The players are being lambasted for not being up to it or lazy or any other adjective you care to throw at them. It is unduly harsh on the both. They did their job on Saturday; it was the finishing that was at fault, not the general build-up play.

Post-match, Wenger observed that the ball was not moved forwards quickly enough. It is questionable as to whether or not in fixtures such as these, he should not take the Song option and put Nasri central with Vela on the wing, taking into account current fitness levels?

Arshavin’s debut was positive, not just from the passing and shots but also from the interchanging with Nasri on the flanks and constant talking with team-mates. It appears he has settled well in the first instance. At the other end of the scale, it was another spurned opportunity by Bendtner. He has the movement that Wenger wants from his strikers but at the end of the day, if the Dane wants to be an automatic choice, he has to score. Doing so against Cardiff is one matter but on a regular basis in the Premier League is another that he has yet to master.

As results go, it was poor. Villa have stumbled in their last few games; Arsenal have not taken advantage and whilst it is impossible not to disagree with Wenger’s assessment that the result is not as critical as it would have been were there three games to go, the manager’s view is for public consumption. Privately, he will be sharing the frustration evident amongst the support.

Thirty-six points remain on the table. The title is gone. Second place realistically is gone. Chelsea’s win on Saturday was unsurprising given their away form. Any view on the ‘Hiddink factor’ cannot be taken until they have played another two or three games.

What is clear though, is that Arsenal are not masters of their own destinies. Four consecutive draws, which had they or three of them been won, would have seen the team in fourth. An unbeaten run is all well and good but wins have to be the majority of the results for that to count for something. A top four finish is well within the team’s capabilities yet they are missing an ingredient to turn that into a reality.

And in this sense, you can see van Persie’s point when he talks of a new contract requiring the club to show that they need to match his ambition. Wenger has a squad capable of challenging for trophies, if they are all fit.

Problematically for the manager, the past two seasons or so have shown that fitness is something he cannot rely upon, either through deficiencies in the players themselves – Rosicky, Walcott – or by tackles – Fabregas. Yet to match the ambitions of all, Wenger will need to add three more midfielders, to satisfy the requirements of the stands. And where do they sit when everyone is fit? A decent squad size is required but it would be easy to bloat, leading to dissension if regular playing time is not achieved.

Despite this, there is no need for desperation or despair. Points can be won and will be dropped by all sides around us. The ‘killer’ instinct to take advantage of them must be recaptured and will be soon enough. Interestingly, the team are already being written off against Roma, as if the Italians are some mythical, unbeaten side instead of the decidely similar season they are having to Arsenal. Seems like Arsene’s pep-talk is being done for him in the back pages.

’til Tomorrow.