Arshavin & Arsene Gives A Reality Cheque

Arsene had a lot to say in his press conference yesterday, providing the assembled media with lots to write about other clubs but nothing particularly new concerning incoming players, especially Andrei Arshavin.

Unusually for his reign at the club, this one is being conducted in public, or partially at least, thanks to the verbosity of Zenit St Petersburg:

[We are] nowhere. That means we are not close to signing anybody. We know what we want to do, but we are not close to signing today because I would tell you. But there is no basic news. There again, we are in negotations yes but we want to respect our principles. I am very hopeful [of a deal]

Which is no further on than earlier this week, publicly at least. Patience is a virtue and some will have to be displayed by us in waiting for this matter to be resolved. Patience is in short supply in some quarters as it seems that the CEO should bend over and allow the Russians to shove their demands up his Arsenal whilst raiding the piggy bank.

The clubs have their respective valuations of the player but to suggest that Arsenal should simply hand over another £5m here or there to seal the deal is nonsensical. Arshavin cannot join in time for the visit to Hull so why the rush? In the time that the two clubs have been talking, Arsenal are unbeaten. Arshavin could not have impacted on the draws against Villa or Liverpool nor could he have improved the three points taken against Portsmouth or Bolton; that is the maximum available. If he is to join, he will do so when the time is right for all parties and that includes the signing of any replacement by Zenit.

Problematically for Wenger, the back pages are filled with Manchester City’s desire to spend the equivalent of the GDP of a small third world nation on Kaka. £100m is a frankly ludicrous sum for the player, one that would take the best part of a decade to make back by which time the Brazilian would probably have let his contract run down and moved on elsewhere leaving City looking at huge losses. Whilst it is fun for the hacks, the reality of City’s situation is that they are trying to come from considerably further behind as a club than Chelsea were.

Little doubt that Zenit were hoping City would come in with a bid for their prize asset but that seems unlikely. Were they to do so, Wenger noted that Arsenal cannot compete:

I don’t feel in connection with that at all because we live in a football club which lives in the real world. That means we spend the money we make from our income. The implications [of a £100million transfer] would be disturbance on the market. Inflationary trend in a deflationary world. But it leaves Arsenal where we are now. That means we spend the money we produce and we make. We are in a world where we live from three kinds of income – gate receipts, the sponsors and the television money. That is the real world of football. The rest is exceptional and is not the rule of our world. It is a special income with unlimited resources, but it’s not the real world. Whether it is us, Sunderland or Coventry we live with the same rules. Manchester City are in a different world because they do not live with their income.

The word ‘yet’ seems to be missing from that last sentence. Two clubs have spent freely in the past, two clubs that have or are enduring a reality check. The salutory lessons that Real Madrid and Chelsea are finding will no doubt visit Eastlands in the future, sooner rather than later if they do not qualify for Europe next season. Madrid’s Galactico policy would have ended in tears had they not done a dodgy deal with their training ground and Chelsea are ‘reviewing‘ their spending in all areas, presumably trying to stop an ‘Animal House‘ outbreak in their canteen by charging for meals. The thought of Frank Lampard sitting there with his mouth full of mashed potato, asking if anyone can guess what he is impersonating makes me see him in a different light. Oh, and by the way, it’s still a zit Frank.

Like Wenger, I feel no pangs of jealousy with City’s spending power. Whilst it would be nice to be able to pop out and buy the odd Kaka and wash it down with a bottle of Casillas, the building of a squad is more long-term and leaves a sense of permanence in a sport known for its’ short-termism. There are improvements to be made but the sense of achievement when silverware rolls in is tangibly more satisfying if it is done the proper way.

’til Tomorrow.

DB10 On Coaching But No Comfy Sofa For Him

Morning Troops, it is a long week indeed when there are no games to talk about. Still on we go with the meander through footballing life.

Dennis Bergkamp is grabbing the headlines and forging his way into a million dreams with his comments on Arsenal TV that had been widely reported in the media:

I wouldn’t rule out [working at Arsenal in some capacity]

Much is often made of players who have been under the spell of the Dark Side of football and how they are the future of English management, compared to Wenger’s players who have shown little inclination to enter the insecure world of being ‘The Gaffer‘. Sadly for this media, more of Ferguson’s former charges are proving to be Fred Moffat’s than they are Alf Ramsey’s. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Sith Lord’s abilities in this respect.

Of the same generation, former Arsenal players seem to head more into the coaching side of things or at least steering clear of managing. Certainly as far as the English game is concerned, only Merson, Platt and Adams have taken on the top jobs; the jury’s verdict on the former pair is not favourable and the latter, well, they are still out on Big Tone and how he will be seen. My suspicion is that he will be lucky to be in the Portsmouth job at the end of the season given the inability of any chairman to put up with even the mildest form of pain, in footballing time.

That former Wenger players move more readily into the technical side of the game is perhaps reflective of the managerial styles, or at least public perceptions of Wenger and Ferguson. The latter is very much an ‘old school’ manager whilst Wenger the ‘new breed’ in terms of English football. Personally, I find Ferguson, Allardyce, Redknapp and their ilk to be archaic, like the dinosaurs heading for extinction.Little wonder that the Football Association choose to look abroad for the head coaches for the national team.

Bergkamp observed that native players here are adapting:

I think when I first came it was a case that [there was a lack of technical ability]. Then a lot of foreign players came in and probably improved the game. Now I feel that there are foreign players who are coming in who aren’t improving the game because you’ve got English players who are technically better. It has changed. If you only look at Arsenal for example, you have 16-year-olds with fantastic technique who came through the system so you must be doing something right.

Perhaps English managers need to learn some new tricks as well. That said, the chairmen have not helped the situation, living up to Len Shackleton’s blank page in his autobiography summing up what directors know about football. There is, of course, little incentive for the modern footballer to stay in the game once their career on the pitch is over. Unlike their predecessors, they are financially secure and with chairmen acting dementedly once a struggle beckons, why should they put anything into taking a top job?

More so, the comfort of the pundit’s sofa in the plethora of newsrooms and studios that the media attention on the game demands, means that they get to take cheap shots, say nothing or little of note and disappear off to the golf course and the 19th hole at their leisure. Why bother with stress when you can be destructive and have no responsibilities once the transmission light switches off?

Finally today, Word of Sport continue their special offer on Kenny Sansom’s enjoyable memoir, To Cap It All. By clicking here, you can enjoy owning a signed copy of the book for £8.99, a saving of 50% off the retail price. I forgot to mention that yesterday that you need to send an email to them by clicking here and removing the [at], stating that you are taking advantage of this offer.

’til Tomorrow

To Renew Or Not To Renew – That Is The Question

The news yesterday that up to 24% (a 3% increase since last August) of Arsenal supporters are considering not renewing their season tickets is of little surprise. Given the current economic outlook for the coming years, some surprise could be registered that Arsenal are not looking at suffering bigger losses in those numbers.

As with any research, it depends upon the question asked and to whom you ask it; everyone’s position is different and money is not the only factor in these questions. The suggestion from looking at the report over a number of months is that the figure is higher than normal but the average appears to be around 18 – 20% in normal times. A number of the respondents – possibly quite a high proportion – will have been frustrated at the recent run of not challenging for the title or winning silverware. A short-term view in my opinion but given the ‘now’ society in which we seem to live, it is of little surprise.

Initially, I was going to end the last sentence with ‘or of little consequence‘. However, there will be consequences, particularly for the club. It is subjective as to whether or not the impact of those who do not renew will be good or bad for the club. There is a waiting list for season tickets that could fill The Emirates all over again. In that number though will be people who will not take up the first season ticket that they are offered, either through personal circumstances or where the seat is situated. That is no different from a normal year.

If – and it is a big if – the 14,400 or so do not renew, it is not going to happen en masse. Yet the club cannot ignore the gravity of the situation. Football has been living in a bubble since the early 1990s when Sky wafted in with their perfumed Radley purse and opened it to reveal a whole wad of cash. Now the clubs face their first severe test.

Supporter numbers are not increasing, despite what the Premier League claim. Sure, the numbers attending PL games are increasing but there are a multitude of reasons for that, not least that Arsenal have almost doubled their capacity and Manchester United in a similar timescale added another 10,000 to theirs. If you add into that mix promotions for clubs such as Sunderland who have a bigger capacity than those who they have replaced, it is disingenuous of the authorities to claim that the product is more popular than ever. Blackburn and Wigan regularly struggle to sell out their games provide evidence that all is not as rosy as is being claimed.

Crucially for the club is what assumptions that they have to make if a quarter of the season tickets were unsold. Despite what is portrayed elsewhere, this is as much of a revenue opportunity as it is potentially detrimental. It would, in a worst case scenario, leave 14,000 tickets available to be sold to members. In other words, people who want to go but cannot commit to a season ticket. They pay a higher price per ticket than season tickets so this indicates potentially higher revenues. Not much but a positive to the coffers nonetheless.

Ultimately, the club cannot ignore such statistics nor can they put too much store by them either. Certainly, they should be cautious about any price increases, as I think they would be, for next season. This might be an element that makes them reflective about their business plan, particularly concerning pricing.

Interestingly, Arsenal are one of the best placed clubs in this table. 24% sounds a lot but is less than the 36% of United season ticket holders considering the same course of action and the 37% of Newcastle, Blackburn and West Ham fans thinking likewise.

Finally today, the rather nice chaps at Word of Sport have a special offer on at the moment for Kenny Sansom’s enjoyable memoir, To Cap It All. By clicking here, you can enjoy owning a signed copy of the book for £8.99, a saving of 50% off the retail price.

’til Tomorrow.

Arsene The Pundit On Youth And The Future

If Arsene ever gets fed up with football management, a career on the pundits sofa beckons. Bemoaning the state of the English game is their favourite topic and Wenger joined in at the weekend:

[The Premier League] has definitely lost something. It has been linked temporarily this year with the fact the League is so tight. Teams after ninth place are all scared to go down and that could make everybody be more cautious. But I can remember when I arrived in 1996 everybody had a go at you, that meant you had space up and down…I think we have to be good enough to create the chances if the opposition only defends. It is maybe one of the weaknesses of the top Premier League teams this year that teams have learned only to defend away from home. It looks like all the four that we call the top four, that has become now five, struggle with that…I believe it is down to the quality of the defending of the other teams and to the huge improvement in physical fitness and quality.

Football has always been a cyclical game in terms of tactics, the direct route became popular in the early 90s when Arsene arrived, evolving gradually since then but not by much. As he rightly observes, few outside of the top four try to play the ‘passing’ game, most preferring a robust approach to survival.

In that the problems facing Arsenal have evolved. Wenger is a ‘purist’ yet this is being tempered by the current indifferent form, requiring an alternative tactical output. In previous domestic seasons, the quality of the players at his disposal meant that even on a pitch as narrow as Highbury, teams could be overcome with short passing, allied to pace.

Now, arguably the most technically capable squad that he has assembled is struggling, through injuries to key personnel, to bring to the fore the creative skills needed. At times, it is almost as if they are being dragged down to their opponents level to create a breakthrough. Is this something that should be a cause for concern? If the results come through then no. Indeed, there is an argument that it shows tactical maturity on the part of the players, understanding that if Plan A does not work then B or C will have to be employed. Yet in doing so, they are criticised for not playing to the high standards set previously. It seems at times as if they are damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

One area where Wenger has stolen a considerable march on his peers is the youth policy. Promotion of younger players is his most potent weapon at the moment in the absence of silverware, something that Wenger acknowledged:

If you take the top 10 clubs all over Europe we are the only ones who give a chance to young players. And when you are at that age you go where you can smell the chance to play.

Reports over the weekend suggest that Chelsea has hit problems with trying to buy their youth policy from around the globe, supposedly they have put a large number of their youngsters up for sale. Whilst Arsenal have not necessarily bred the players themselves – numbers have been bought – it has been conducted in a logical and methodical manner, a clear end in sight rather than the rushed buying and hoping policies employed elsewhere.

There is a downside, of course:

One of the problems when you build a young team up is you have to be patient knowing they are impatient. And that is the difficult side of it because everybody wants always to play.

There is another downside in the longer term. With a young side, the natural longevity of using young players can mean that whilst the initial generations are viewed as being outstandingly productive, unless you can bring through more exceptional talent, the probability is that third and fourth generations get overlooked en masse. This is nothing new for Arsenal. There are enough players who have forged careers away from the club to prove that the youth policy works. Naturally, a few gems move on but football has been littered with world class players who have been overlooked by someone, at some point.

With the current economic crisis, Wenger believes that this will be the way forward:

Over-spending, can, of course, expose any club. I believe what is very difficult at the moment to plan, to ‘budgetise’, is how big this crisis will affect football. I don’t know personally, will it affect television? Television money for some clubs is 50 per cent of their income

It is something that has long been of concern within the game, the percentage of revenue from broadcasting becomes ever more dominant. The ITV Digital debacle and the crushing impact that was felt in the lower divisions is a salutory warning to those clubs outside on the european places on a regular basis as to what can happen. As of yet, there is little sign of it being heeded.

’til Tomorrow.

A Wanderers Return As Bendtner Sinks Bolton

Arsenal 1 – 0 Bolton Wanderers

1 – 0 Bendtner (84)

It is almost a case of being like Denis Norden, It’ll Be Alright On The Night. By no means a vintage performance, the win has closed the gap on Liverpool to eight points and the faint flicker of the title challenge flame has not been entirely extinguished.

The paucity of efforts on target is evidence of the nullifying tactics employed by the visitors. That their bench was filled by only four of the seven permissible substitutes was held as evidence by Gary Megson that his squad was short of available players. Presumably Bolton do not have a reserve team otherwise the petulance of his act may have contributed to his own downfall. Aside from a tame McCann effort, I am struggling to remember anything that the visitors created prior to the goal. Afterwards, their stirring efforts resulted in a Davies effort comfortably held by Almunia. Not much for an afternoon’s work.

As for Arsenal, it was a struggle for much of the game to impose their style effectively on their opponents. The willingness to do so was there, the numbers and organisation that they faced more than hinted at the detrimental effect on the side the prolonged absences of Fabregas, Walcott and Rosicky are having. Zenit St Petersburg continue to conduct transfer negotiations with Arsenal over Andrei Arshavin in public with claims that they have rejected a £10m bid for the player. Added to that, depending on which source you believe, is a further £5m in appearance fees. Perhaps some of his guile might have created a greater return?

Crucially though, a nascent unbeaten run was continued with three more points. To have lost further ground might have dented the seemingly fragile confidence that is being repaired by recent results. The source of the goal was surprising in that Bendtner is not enjoying the best of times. He might have broken the deadlock sooner, almost repeating his introduction against Tottenham last season; this time, his contact on the cross was nowhere near as powerful or clean, the ball nestling safely in Jaaskelainen. He made up for it six minutes before the end, stealing in at the far post to tuck home van Persie’s excellent cross to secure the win.

That van Persie was involved in the goal was of little surprise; he was the beyond a shadow of a doubt, the Man of the Match. His performance was the highlight of a drab afternoon, denied by the woodwork and some wayward finishing.

For Arsene, it was something to be grateful for as Adebayor misfired in front of goal. He might have run around a lot but rather like Cristiano Ronaldo, for the moment the end product that was so bountiful last season is not quite as abundant. That, it has to be said, has a lot to do with the team’s performances. If chances are not created then they cannot be taken. Adebayor may be unsettled by the indifferent form and needs some strong leadership.

On that subject, Kolo Toure’s performance deserves some credit. Having been out of the side for a variety of reasons, his return was everything that you would expect from him. Yes, it was not perfect but the leadership he showed was commendable.

The crucial thing though was three points and that was achieved. The top is closer than it was on Saturday morning and whilst the media continue to have wet dreams over Manchester United, I for one will be happy if Arsenal win every game for the rest of the season by one goal to nil.

’til Tomorrow.

Arsene on Transfers and Bolton Preview

Transfer Talk

Arsene spoke yesterday of the ongoing negotiations for Andrei Arshavin:

At the moment I cannot give you any good news but in this job no news is good news. Nothing has fallen through. We are on alert in the transfer market…We are a little short because we wanted a player like (Tomas) Rosicky to play 80% of games and he has not played at all.

It is little little surprise that nothing has moved on the Russian Front. Dick Advocaat, Zenit’s manager, mentioned the other day that he had identified Arshavin’s replacement already so I suspect it is rather like a house sale, everyone waiting for a deal further down the line to complete. Slow moving it might be but better than nothing at all.

Wenger discussed the possibility of adding a defensive player, specifically Upson:

I like personally Matthew Upson. But there again I would not like to come out on that. However at the moment, we are not looking to buy on the defensive side of our game

Which is about as definitive as it gets as far as the back four is concerned. It reinforces the notion that no-one is leaving although with three weeks still to go that can change.

Later in his interview, Wenger will no doubt have sent alarm bells ringing through the ears of many:

We want to spend money but as everyone knows, and as the the chairman has said, we have money available but we have limited resources, and you want to spend it in the best way possible.

No doubt this will be interpreted as Arsenal being stoney-broke but too many people are willing to believe that the inflated figures bandied about in the summer were true; too many willing to believe that the transfer chest equated directly to the £60m or so that the club had in the bank at that point. The truth is harder to ascertain because it would be commercial suicide for anyone in authority to let the selling clubs know how much Arsenal had available to spend.

The Squad

Wenger once more publicly defended his charges, something that would be no less than expected:

Nothing is missing [from my squad] but you always want to add some quality to what you already have. I am very happy with the quality of the players I have and I believe that at the moment we are a bit short number-wise. If we can add one or two players then we will do it but the squad I have is not lacking quality; we have enough quality.

He is short of numbers simply through the ever large injury list. Actually the treatment room is not that busy with “short-termers”, it is the number of long-term injuries that is of concern. They are key personnel who are in there. The importance of Fabregas to the side is clear but Walcott, Rosicky and Eduardo are equally so. The first two names on that list provide flair, pace and the intelligence in attack, particularly the Czech international. His guile has been sorely missed since he was injured. Walcott it seems will be the first of the trio to return at the end of next month with Fabregas and Eduardo a month or so later.

Bolton Wanderers Preview

Bolton visit The Emirates this afternoon, looking to abscond with the points from what will undoubtedly be a physical encounter. Gary Megson promised as much before criticising Arsene Wenger for constantly bemoaning the tackles that Bolton make during these encounters. In an attempt to make good relations between the two clubs, Megson said:

Whenever we play Arsenal, it always seems to be overshadowed by an incident, which is usually a tackle. My players call it “in yer face” football and, yes, we try to get in everybody’s face, but always in a fair manner. Kevin Davies is the most fouled player in the Premier League

He is also one of the players who commits the most fouls as well, a fact that Megson was curiously keen to overlook. The Bolton gaffer should have taped over his mouth at this point before claiming that the tackle on Gael Clichy was not as bad as it seemed because the Frenchman was training on the Tuesday after this season’s encounter at The Reebok. Well, that made Davies’ scything challenge alright then because nobody really got hurt by the tackle.

Team news is mixed. Gallas and Silvestre are both out but Toure, Denilson, Song and Clichy return to the squad. It will be interesting to see whether Arsene continues with Ramsey although I doubt it. For the purposes of today’s game, it is more likely that we will see Eboue on the right to give some physical presence to the midfield. Centrally, Denilson will start but the choice will be whether he is partnered by Diaby or Song.

I would expect the starting line-up to be something like:

Almunia; Sagna, Toure, Djourou, Clichy; Eboue, Denilson, Diaby, Nasri; van Persie, Adebayor

With a bench of:

Fabianski, Vela, Bendtner, Ramsey, Song, Gibbs, Wilshere

Three points are vital. Villa take on West Brom and Liverpool are at Stoke, games that the top four teams would be expected to cruise through. They might not but it would a surprise if they emerge with less than three points each from those encounters. A gap can be closed, with an Arsenal win, on United or Chelsea or both with their meeting on Sunday. Every weekend is going to be like this though. The team must win their games and hope that others are less conscientious in order to create a pressure situation on those above them in the table. Unfortunately, this weekend it is Arsenal who will probably be under pressure given Villa’s lunchtime kick-off.

In Defence Of Changing Attitudes

So a fresh morning today, the sort that makes the normal five minute walk from the kids school to the office a brisk two and a half minutes.

Emmanuel Adebayor voiced his support for William Gallas’ words before Christmas. Adebayor said:

There is some truth in what he said. Someone had to say these things, to make each person face up to their responsibilities. If he had said nothing, where would we be today?

Fifth in the Premier League, fourth round of the FA Cup and in the knockout phase of the Champions League is the guess that I would hazard. Adebayor went on:

He is indispensable to the team. He is Arsenal’s rock – his behaviour since the armband was taken off him proves that.

On that point, he is totally correct. Gallas has not reacted in the manner many half or totally expected; he has got on with his job and his form has not noticeably dipped. It has been a strange season for the Frenchman. We know he is a world-class defender but he has been culpable for some crucial goals, most recently at Villa Park.

I think it was Eisenhower who said something about having a lucky general rather than a smart one but this season, it would be fair to say Gallas would suit the sobriquet ‘Bad Luck Billy‘ given that his mistakes have been costly. He is by no means alone in that in the Arsenal squad nor are his failings the reason for the points gap at the top; there have been many other well-documented shortcomings contributing to that. It would however be no surprise if he left in the summer – this window is one too soon, I suspect, for his manager.

One final thought on this until the next time someone asks the question of a voluble squad member. It was not what Gallas said, it was the where and why that caused the problems.

Arsene and  Manuel Almunia have been speaking of the need for solidity at the back. The manager spoke about his tactical changes:

We have definitely become more solid over the last few weeks. As a team we are better defensively and I also think that the creative spark will come back quickly, as confidence builds.  When you can be consistent, the confidence returns and with that the creative side of the game will come.  We have made a small change to the structure of the team lately, which has helped us to be more solid defensively.

He went on to note that away from home this was helping, citing the trip to Aston Villa as an example where playing up front with one man got a return of two goals from the midfield. It was perhaps a strange choice of game because there was little defensive solidity on view, the woodwork saving Arsenal on three occasions. The process is long to move from freely conceding (by top four standards) to a tight ship. There are the right moves in that direction, a clean sheet tomorrow would do wonders as well.

Rather disconcertingly his goalkeeper hinted that the defensive side of the game had been somewhat neglected in training. Almunia spoke of the changing attitude within the squad:

We have had bad moments against the kind of team that play long balls, lots of crosses. The attitude of the team has changed over the past few games. We are finding our way and our origins and the desire to win and show the strength of the team. Every single player realised that we have to not only play when we have the ball, but we have to play without the ball too.  This is the work that we have to practise every day and we are doing that now

Am I the only one who finds the last sentence somewhat disconcerting? This is the work they should have been doing every day since they returned to training from their summer holidays. There are enough teams who have this style of play in the Premier League and did so last season as well. Those sides have been very effective against Arsenal this season since day one so you would have thought that this aspect would have been identified very early on as a key area to concentrate. Maybe they have done but this was undermined by some complacency, the knowledge that they are technically superior footballers to their opponents possibly contributing to the slackness defensively. In his book, Gallas identified that the younger members of the French squad were not always prepared to listen so it is not beyond the realms of belief that this malaise was apparent to some extent at Arsenal?

Whatever the case may be, Bolton tomorrow provides a test of how well those lessons that Almunia and Wenger spoke of have been learned. They will play to their strengths, i.e. pack the midfield and seek to stifle before launching their attacks with a long ball. It is not a style that I would want to watch every week – I had enough of that as George Graham slowly lost the plot – but it is utlising their resources to their best ability. And for that, they should not be criticised. It is up to Arsenal to counteract those tactics with good football.

’til Tomorrow.