Posted by: Yogi's Warrior | September 11, 2007

PHW Gives Both Barrels And Captain Bill

PHW has been shooting from the lip, David Dein getting both barrels in what could be interpreted as a bitter parting shot. Re-iterating that the current Board have no intention of selling their shareholding, Hill-Wood gave a similar response to those handed out to questioners about Stan Kroenke,

We will have a dialogue with any principal or major shareholder. If they’ve got some sensible proposals we’ll listen to them

Sounding like a bitter ex-spouse, he then commented that Dein was unlikely to be asked for any opinions,

I see no major point in that, I’ve had 25 years of listening to him

A painful divorce indeed.

The two statements seem on the face of it to be incompatible; if Usmanov seeks a meeting, the likelihood is that Dein would accompany him and give input. In those circumstances, the meeting would not appear to be a viable option. However, in much the same way as PHW backed down and toned down his attitude to Kroenke, the same will happen with Dein but I guess take a longer period of time given that their views on the business side of the Club are diametrically opposed.

The robust nature of their defences when questioned about the future of their shareholdings gives rise to the school of thought that the Board genuinely want to hold onto their shares but it should be treated with some caution. After all, unless they are genuinely going to sell, they have no option but to state their intention to hold onto the shares. To do otherwise invites unwelcome speculation in media and market circles. My own feeling is that they do not want to sell right now but are waiting to see who is flushed out by the interest of others; whether or not there is the potential to have someone they approve of selling Arsenal to. Right now, their options are limited.

Onto more joyful things, there seems to be a fair to middling chance that William Gallas will be fit for Saturday

My recovery is going well. I am working very hard to get back with all the rest of the players

That Domenech did not pick him on Saturday was a bonus, a rare moment of commonsense from the French coach given his previous history of contributing to the ruin of Arsenal players fitness. I am in two minds about whether or not Gallas should play on Wednesday. If he is fit, it would be good for him to play and get back his match fitness ahead of the derby although there is a chance he could breakdown again. Mind you, that could happen in training so which is better? Personally, if he is fit, let him play for France. Arsene may not agree but an extra match before Tottenham would do the player good. His return from injury at Anfield was hardly one of his ‘Glory Days’ so anything that helps his sharpness is fine by me.

’til Tomorrow.


Responses

  1. top gun

  2. to see Gallas on the field again, even if its for France, would be a good sight. If he is not fot for weds then there’s every chance he wont make saturday either.

    I am in agreement with you that the board are happy to bide their time and flush out any further potential investors in the coming years. I also dont think they will sell before the share price peaks. that will surely be after the successful sale of the property developments.
    Usmanov might be a total crook, but all billionaires are, and if he can buy the club for cash then he is a better proposition than anything else we have on the table thus far. Would he buy the club for kudos, like Roman A, or would he be looking to take (significant) returns on his investment? This is something I need to know before I can back the ugly git or not.

  3. With all the hard work that was put in with the new stadium why would the board want to then sell their shares? If you had just built yourself a new house would you then sell it to make a quick profit or would yo live in it knowing that you could sell it when you want to retire 10 – 15 – 20 years later.
    To me Dein sold his shares cheaply. It values the culb at £500 million, United was sold for £740m three years ago before the new bigger TV deals were brokered, so Arsenal should be worth a fair bit more that 500m especially as their debt repayments are well worked out and the property portfolio is going to knock half of it on the head anyway. PHW has every right to think DD is a nutter, he lost the plot a few years back.

  4. I have no allegiances with any of the shareholders but I don’t think that the house analogy holds up. If I had just built a new house and someone offered me over the odds for it I might well sell it.

    In terms of investment potential and the need for it in the future. What happens if transfer fees drop considerably and players wages rise considerably i.e. our revenue expenditure has to rise..and what happens if media money begins to dry up or is redistributed as a result of FA, UEFA, FIFA? Or ticket prices have to drop to remain competitive. Might we not need to extend the stadium to say 80K or create our own TV channel. Might this need investment above and beyond our current arrangements. I am not trying to be clever but football as a business is remarkably fluid and the market can change.

    Also do we want DF to get more involved in day-to-day management, is he good at that? Wouldn’t we rather he just stayed as he is for the two or three years he is still with us?

  5. I agree with Lancealittle. Why is it that you think PHW, DF et al would sell at the right price, YW? This whole Dein/takeover quarrel isn’t about money, it’s about control. I think they would want to keep control, at least until the Emirates business plan comes to fruition and they can (rightly) take the credit, and see that the club is on an even more solid financial footing. (Gazzap, anything is possible and I suppose they might sell way into the future, but it would never be to someone like Usmanov, because they value the traditions of the club and care about what happens to AFC in the long term.) Dein and the board take opposing stances about what is good for the club, both sides are sincere, but Dein is wrong. I like your divorce analogy, YW, but in my eyes, Dein is the bitter parent who has been ejected from the family home and who wants to get revenge on the other parent by using the kids.

  6. oh dear oh dear oh dear oh dear

  7. I think the house analogy works. If you are very rich and inherit your parents’ glorious Georgian house with a great view and fond memories, you won’t sell it for love nor money, certainly not a few %age points over the “fair value”. You live in it, enjoy it and you use your other money for living.

    These guys are very very rich already – they don’t need the cash: their shares are a nest-egg to be passed on to the next generation for enjoyment or for cashing in.

  8. Fungunner

    Age is the simple reason why they will sell. There is no visible sign of any succession planning, so with most if not all of them being of a retirement sort of age, it is likely they will sell at some point.

    I did not say they would sell now, merely wait until someone in whom they are confident that they can trust the future of AFC to. And as it stands at the moment, the involvement of DD is going to prove an insurmountable stumbling block.

    YW

  9. I see there’s another “mike” now, so I’ll use a capital “M”, or maybe I’ll just change to “MikeSA” if neccessary.

    The board should take a serious look at doing some sort of share restructure.

    I don’t know about the UK, but where I come from this can be done.

    If they issued 1000 “new” shares for each “old” share, then instead of a prohibitive (for most of us) 8000 pounds or so for a single share, a share would only cost about 8pounds.

    Seeing as we have the largest membership of any club in the world, that should open share ownership up to a much larger base. Right now, you have to be very comfortable just to buy one share, whereas if the entry level were lower, the share ownership base would be far larger, and buyers would be far easier to find. As a result, the value of the share should rise as well.

    We could then look at Gooners getting a far larger collective stake in the club.

    That would make it far easier for someone like Kroenke or Asimov to unload if they feel that they are not going to be able to complete a takeover.

    I think the club or AST should set up a “members” forum that you can sign in to, propose items for the agenda of the AGM, and submit your “vote for what you want to happen on various issues.

    Proxies could then be put forward to represent each pov on each issue at the AGM, and vote accordingly.

    That way, thousands of shareholders would not need to swamp the AGM.

    It would be a lot harder for a hostile bid to succeed in the manner it did at manu if Gooners controlled 20-30% of the shares.

    Right now, that’s being prevented because of the high cost of participation.

  10. Fiszman has come out all guns blazing as well.

    Brilliant stuff.

    I salute the current board and I hope that they and people approved by them continue to run the club as it has been in the last few years.

    Quite simply, anyone who doesn’t love Arsenal and will ultimately puts personal profit and personal gain ahead of the interests of the club and us fans should never be allowed to run the club. The same goes for Judas Dein. The most important thing to David Dein is David Dein, not Arsenal Football Club.

    People say there are rumours that Fiszman had been looking to sell his shares but that’s speculation. What we do know is that he will never sell to the likes of Kroenke and Usmanov. When they time comes for him to part with his shares, as long as they are sold to solid Arsenal men who are buying into the club they love rather than portfolio building, then he hasn’t betrayed the club like Dein has.

    I don’t believe for one second that a man like Fiszman, who is worth £200m – £300m, is holding out for a few extra hundred pounds a share.

    In light of the service he’s given the club, he’s entitled to receive the maximum reward but if you think a man who is a London-born fan of the club, worth quarter of a billion, is paying lip service in order to gain an extra £20m – £30m then you’re a baseless cynic in the extreme.

    Kroenke’s backed off because the current credit crunch has made highly leveraged buyouts an unattractive proposition.

    Just look at the latest problems the Glazers and Gillet & Hicks are running into with refinancing their current detbts.

    The question remains whether Kroenke will hold on to his shares with a long term view to a HLB or if, in light of the uncertain markets, hostility from the current board and parting of the ways with Dein, he’ll sell up to the highest bidder.

  11. Good post Mike – and I agree, although in that case a full listing instead of being on Ofex/Plus would probably also take place … and being a listed company has not been good for any other clubs because speculative investors and other funds who want a return come in and take more shares than the true fans. So maybe being in the hands of “benign” rich people is better.

    As for age causing a handover, it’s possible, but Lady Nina can hand on in the family and DF is not too old at present.

    I think the only likely cause would be if they decided that they did need more cash to compete, but this is far from proven once this current “bubble” blows over – and they could get another £50-70m just from an issue of 10% new shares.

  12. I’d just like to add that I think that arguably it is Kroenke and not Dein, Usmanov, Fiszman or LNBS who is the most important shareholder at the club.

    If he decides to sell his 12% to someone on the board/friends of the boar, then 65% of the club will be in the hands of the board, friends and the AST and Dein is sunk.

    If he sells to Dein and Usmanov then they become the single largest shareholder in the club. With over 25%, they can make things very difficult for the board if they want to, making Dein a major player again.

  13. 25% can make life difficult but not unduly so unless you need to do something radical like build a new stadium etc.

    I think DD needs to play a long long game to win – and I suspect he is too old to want to do that.

  14. Kroenke is allegedly a fan of the way the club is being run .. who wouldn’t be, so you’d think he’d be happy to sit on his shares. As well as the shares inevitable increase in value, he would appear to have a genuine interest in a strategic alliance between his American sports – gulp – franchises, and Arsenal. He doesn’t need the money, I can’t see him selling. I think Kroenke could end up being a long-term allie for the board.

    There’s a bit more to Kroenke than your usual money-man it would seem, he’s got all manner of interests in Denver sports teams, from soccer to tiddlywinks, he’s got involved with areas that you couldn’t possibly think would be financially lucrative, so you’d have to think he has some sort of genuine sporting interest.

  15. Agreed. The board need to use Kroenke as an ally if at all possible. if he joins forces with DD then he becomes dangerous. but my thinking is that Kroenke will sell as soon as he thinks the share price has topped out and he may not be fussy who he sells to.

    looking at the age argument, I cant see that really coming into play for at least 5-10 years. by that time so many things could have changed. Liverpool and Man U could both have done a Leeds and been bought out by someone else by then and we could be dominating the premier league. PHW is old (71) but I dont think he is a major shareholder with only 0.8%.
    Lady nina Bracewell Smith is 52 and DF is 62 and they are the two main players. As I say, I dont see a rush due to their age.

  16. Some good points hboy.

    Every day, Kroenke is making a profit. He paid £6800 – £7200 per share and now they are going for £8000 – £8200 each.

    The link up between the Rapids and Arsenal will help increase the quality and subsequently the value of the Rapids, making more money for Kroenke.

    The sale of the Highbury flats will increase the value of the shares, making more money for the club.

    Even without trying to force himself on the club, he can walk away in 2 or 3 years time with a hefty profit.

    Maybe his rejection of Dein’s shares wasn’t to do with refusing to give Dein the same control of them that Usmanov has given him. Maybe he was never really that committed to a Glazer style annex of Arsenal.

    However, I don’t think Kroenke can be seen as an ally of the board. After all, he did reject the board’s offer to sign the lockdown so he has to be treated with suspicion.

  17. As I said before, the current financial market has ruled out highly leveraged buyouts for the likes of Kroenke.

    Banks will simply not lend the kind of money he will be looking to take out against the club.

    In all honesty, I think this is a major reason why he has cooled off.

    No point over-reaching himself like the Glazers did.

    You always have to have an exit strategy and as has been mentioned before, it’s easier to sell 12% then it is to sell 27%.

  18. If you take into account the devaluation in the dollar since kroenke bought his shares he is in front on the deal though the deal also included buying 50% of the broadband business from ITV at £23m which he hasn’t completed yet though he paid a non-refundable £7.5m down payment. At this stage it doesn’t look as though Kroenke will now go through with that part of the deal so he is not as far in front as you might think in which case he may cut and run.

    The present board holds enough cards to hold the line for a few year. Fiszman is younger than Dein and, along with the rest of the board, is implacably opposed to letting DD back in. The Bracewell-Smith family in various forms do still collectively hold a big stake in the club and there is a line of succession there. I think they will wait until they can maintain a form of multiple ownership which suits the club.

    The problem with issuing more shares, a rights issue in fact, as someone has proposed is that you dilute the shareholdings which makes it even easier for predatory speculators to take over the club. At present we have a balanced long term strategy in the primary interests of the club and the club alone. It doesn’t have to serve the interests of investors looking for a return so everything can be plowed back into the club. Every supporter should welcome and support that strategy for as long as it can be maintained.

  19. According to the last Forbes magazine on football clubs (I think 2006), Arsenal were rated the 3rd most values club behind Man Utd and Real Madrid. Now I am not expert at how all the details are worked through but the quotes was £940 million, which if true would suggest that Dein sold out on the cheap. I know that Forbes is a well respected magazine that produces the annual rich lists etc so I am of the mind that maybe they have done there home work.
    I am not only to sway people with an argument because we all have our own opinion but I would say that the club seems very well run and why risk supporting a take over when people really have no idea what the guy is like. Everyone spouts about how much money Mr Russia of Chelsea fame has, true but a lot of the money made was in partnership with dubious business practices where state owned assets were sold for 10% of there true value to these men. This state of affairs has been ever present in Russia for some time and when the latest regime is replaced these people will seek exile in places like Britain to avoid the wrath of the next president if not one of their friends.
    Let the board that have done us as supports proud continue their great work.

  20. “The problem with issuing more shares, a rights issue in fact, as someone has proposed is that you dilute the shareholdings which makes it even easier for predatory speculators to take over the club.”

    This is very true.

    The way to perhaps circumvent this would be to simply limit it to one member, one share.

    Two questions –

    1. Would they want to dilute their own shareholding when they are already confident about being able to fight off the likes of Kroenke and Dein/Usmanov?

    2. Wouldn’t they need 75% of shareholders to vote in favour of issuing more shares?

  21. Whilst I agree with the sentiment behind Mike’s comment, I think that agree also with Toby that the club may then be a hostage to fortune. Is it not possible to set up some sort of trust so that shares cannot be sold? Doubt if the current share holders would want to give away their fortunes though.

    For those of you advocating that DF should purchase more shares…well he has already recently sold some shares and he did not buy the ITV shares, so why would he buy either Kroenke’s or Red & White Holdings shares?

    As for young Mr Grace. How is the buffoon going to speak to Red & White Holdings, the owners of the shares, without speaking to their chairman?

  22. “so why would he buy either Kroenke’s or Red & White Holdings shares?”

    Probably because he doesn’t want to take his shareholding beyond 29.9%, triggering the automatic takeover regulations.

    “As for young Mr Grace. How is the buffoon going to speak to Red & White Holdings, the owners of the shares, without speaking to their chairman?”

    I think it’s pretty obvious that this is a conscious attempt to sideline Agent Orange as much as possible.

    It’s a slap in the face to be told that someone would rather speak to a criminal with racketeering, murder and rape on his charge sheet than you.

  23. I think that we are all talking at cross purposes here. For me the point is that WE that is to say the supporters do not have a say in the future of the club. If I could change anything it is that. I would like us to have a say and not be hostage to the fortunes of a bunch of wealthy people. NONE of whom I trust.

    When people talk about tradition and culture of course it is a complex thing…but the real tradition of the club started when a bunch of workers who loved football started a club, from then on there has been a continuous line of players and supporters together with notable football managers.

    It is not about buying or selling the club wholesale and neither is it about inheriting your daddies or your hubbies shares in the club.

    Now the players (including the manager) and the fans can only sit, watch and listen whilst a bunch of over-privileged people play it out.

  24. g10
    The same goes for Judas Dein. The most important thing to David Dein is David Dein, not Arsenal Football Club.

    Why all of a sudden because dein states a clear interest to return to AFC does he become judas?

    He had many chances to join other EPL clubs, yet
    remains loyal to the arsenal and you people burn him at the stake , you can all jump up and down and say we don’t need the Russians money , but
    why all of a sudden are you all delusional that
    our club is so superior to the chev’s and man u – Liverpool etc? Did we play them all and beat them
    recently ? How do you all know WE WILL MOUNT a successful challenge this season ?

    Where is anyones proof , that dein isnt correct in his statement that we require a big investor to remain competitive ? Who have we played other than minnows this season ??

    I can see all you turn coats playing a different tune if we LOSE regularly to the other top 4 ..
    So think before you speak .. !

  25. If more Gooners joined the AST then more money would go into their coffers and they could try and buy more shares.

    At the moment, the AST shareholding is 2-3%.

    £24 a year to join. £250 a lifetime membership.

    The larger the shareholding, the louder the voice of the fans.

  26. In order to make a rights issue it would usually, depending on the constitution of the company, require 75% of shareholders to vote in favour of it. It would also mean that the shares would first have to be offered in equal proportion to their existing holdings to existing shareholders. If they don’t take up their rights to buy then the shares would be on open offer. If the existing board didn’t want or were unable to invest in more shares they would dilute their holdings and lose the control they have at the moment. This would mean the club falling into the hands of the highest bidder whatever their long term motives. So not a good idea in my view. At present the existing board control the club and there is absolutely nothing anyone can do about it unless one of the major shareholders, Fiszman or Bracewell-smith family breaks ranks. Fiszman/Bracewell-Smith can well set up some sort of trust under family control that would offer some safeguard from anyone singe party having absolute control. It wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if that is a route they eventually go down but there is no need for it at the present.

    As for PH-W talking to DD or not he can always elect to meet with the principal shareholders as he did with Kroenke rather than just Kroenke executives. As he says he knows what Dein wants. It would be far more interesting to hear what Usmanov and his partner expects and probably more interesting for Usmanov to hear the story from someone other than Dein as Kroenke may well be wishing he had done.

  27. Well AFC does seem to break into the top 2 richest clubs by this month end if indications are any to go by from the reports…
    The forbes report eding 2005-06 season is here http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/34/biz_07soccer_Soccer-Team-Valuations_Value.html
    and we are 3rd. I dont see any reason why we wont be 2nd come the september results and the Forbes report end of 2006-07 season or maybe 2007-08 season.
    DD has basically behaved like a pro here in first siding with Kroenke and now Usmanov…If he wanted control then I think he would not have sold his shares cheaply.

  28. Interesting Amos. As young Mr Grace is jolly well not going to speak to that fellow Dein again, does that mean he will be going to Uzbekistan or Moscow.

  29. I think we should all stop worrying. DF says he is staying on for the duration of Wengers contract, PH-W says we are not selling and NBS told sources (Albeit Sun sources!) she was not interested in selling her stake to Dein .

    Why would you sell so soon after building such an amazing stadium? Surely the board would want Arsenal’s full earning potential to be realised before shifting their shares. Why would the board want to sell at an undervalued price?

    Check out the new blog

    http://www.le-grove.co.uk

  30. The Forbes valuation is $915 US dollars which is a bit below the current market captilisation of £490mn so Dein got a decent price for his shares – and a job as well.

    If Deins case is so strong why wasn’t he able to convince one single other director/shareholder of his point? And why as a minority shareholder did he not accept the collective responsibility of a board of directors to act equally in the interests of ALL shareholders not just his own.

    Judas is a bit strong but Dein has certainly acted selfishly though that may not be a hanging offence. I think that you are asking the wrong question though Ethan. Where is the proof that we won’t need the money in a few years time? You should be asking whether we have the money now and whether projected forward income meets our needs for the next few years. Any objective assessment would say we have. The financial strategy so far is successful and doesn’t require taking out more loans from overseas investors to burden us in the future.

  31. Frank. I think it is just possible that Mr Grace would receive anyone who wanted to meet him in London. He doesn’t have a need to speak to Usmanov so it is highly unlikley he would see the need to visit him. Usmanov may have a need to speak to him though and lunch at Claridges would be so much more civilised.

  32. It all seems to be in the timing.

    Pedro, I am not worried. However I would like to know when the club is going to be turned over to the supporters…to me that is the only selfless act that a shareholder can commit. If not that then everything else is just a matter of degree …and timing.

    Amos we have already had ‘Young Mr Grace in Miami’, so why not the sequel ‘Young Mr Grace in Uzbekistan’ ? Do you think he would wear khaki shorts and a pith hemet, long socks with brogues maybe?

  33. Mr Grace’s daughter is married to an American and she lives over there so I think he is quite at home on that trip. Uzbekistan – I can’t quite see that – more the territory for ‘used car dealer’ types with an orange tan I suspect. But the outfit sounds about right – I can well picture him dressed like that – though if it is too warm he may well opt for sandals instead of brogues!

  34. Judging by some of the opinions or rather the Craig Murray opinion that everyone repeats, our Young Mr Grace would be better off meeting Usmanov in a more public place maybe Waterloo Station…oh no but then look what happened to Bourne. I know what about the middle of the Ashburton Grove pitch just after the final whistle, that might also stop a few fans from leaving early.

  35. Maybe we could pit them together in a Sumo contest. That would add to the post match entertainment. Looking at the pictures of Usmanov I wouldn’t rate our mans chances too highly. He was boxing champion at Eton though so he could probably give him a jolly good biff on the snout.

  36. Careful Amos you might get Ethan excited.

  37. ethangooner, you’re a moron.

    Arsenal Football Club has been built on the foundations of financial prudence and moral certitude.

    Highly leveraged buyouts and association with monsters like Usmanov go betray the core values of this club.

    For £75m, read 20 pieces of silver.

    “you can all jump up and down and say we don’t need the Russians money , but
    why all of a sudden are you all delusional that
    our club is so superior to the chev’s and man u – Liverpool etc? Did we play them all and beat them
    recently ? How do you all know WE WILL MOUNT a successful challenge this season ?

    “Where is anyones proof , that dein isnt correct in his statement that we require a big investor to remain competitive ? Who have we played other than minnows this season ?? ”

    Where are these big investors?

    Do you mean Glazer or Gillet and Hicks who have thrust half a billion pound of debt on their clubs or an Abramovich, who is a one-off?

    According to Edelman, the financial report at the end of this month will show once and for all that Arsenal are not in need of a short term cash injection.

    When that happens, the clueless minority who think we need the likes Kroenke and Usmanov at our club will no doubt become and even smaller voice.

    If you don’t like how the club is run then feel free to follow Chelsea, Man Utd or Liverpool.

    “I can see all you turn coats playing a different tune if we LOSE regularly to the other top 4 ..
    So think before you speak .. !”

    I doubt it.

    Only short sighted glory hunter think handing the club over to profiteering foreign money men in any circumstances would be a good idea.

    I’d rather Arsenal stayed under the stewardship of men who understand the history and values of the club, who run the club within prudent financial boundaries and who don’t take a penny out of the club in the way of dividends.

    If you think Man Utd fans are happy with or want Glazer then you are sorely mistaken. Before the Glazers, they were debt free and the richest club in the world. Now they are £660m in debt and facing debt repayments of £100m a year.

    By the way, our debt is a third of Man Utd’s, our respective turnover is almost equal and our debt repayments are a mere £18m a year.

    We have a marvellous new stadium to show for our efforts. They have a group of Americans who are fleecing their fans to pay for their ownership. The same goes for the shirtburners.

  38. Oh dear oh dear oh dear

  39. I assume you’ve you run out of ‘amusing’ tales of fantasy meetings between PHW and Usmanov.

  40. Obviously there is a superfluous ‘you’ between ‘you’ve’ and ‘run’.

    Apt, wouldn’t you say, Frank, given that you and your offerings are somewhat superfluous too?

  41. Poor old G10, I fear that Ethan has infected you. Oh God, You are not him are you? YW help. G10 is not Ethan is he?

  42. YW
    I think the debate should refocus on football and the North London derby…too many posts on financial and shareholding related issues where obviously most people are talking nonsense and sadly completely out of their depth…it is getting boring

  43. Ignore that advert.

    In this case, it’s recommended you don’t talk to Frank.

  44. Tokala, why don’t you point out where people are ‘talking nonsense and sadly completely out of their depth’ and proceed to bestow your infinite wisdom upon us?

  45. g10
    your the moron who cant accept change !
    Usmanov is a billionaire , i don’t know too many ‘
    billionaires who run their businesses into the ground?
    do you ?

    and also youve hit the nail on the head !
    you said

    Do you mean Glazer or Gillet and Hicks who have thrust half a billion pound of debt on their clubs or an Abramovich, who is a one-off?

    Abramovich and Usmanov are powerful enough to
    buy AFC outright several times over
    ! if abramovich is a ONE off
    so is Usmanov…
    If DD is instilling confidence in Usmanov , don’t you think he is in a better position to comment
    on arsenals potential future than you ?!

    Having said that i understand why the board arnt budging either , its all about MONEY not about your history and glory days that your waffling on about !

  46. Excellent G10. Cheered up now then.

    Tokala, get writing then…start us off.

  47. “By the way, our debt is a third of Man Utd’s, our respective turnover is almost equal and our debt repayments are a mere £18m a year.”

    All sounds good to me, but why have Man U been throwing money around like confetti over the summer. I understand there was another deal that they tried me make for about 15m that did not come off, I think it was a striker, either Berbatov or Anelka. it would have taken their spending to about 85m in one summer since Nani and Anderson were £30m and Hargeaves was £17m and Tevez is about £5m per year I think.

    If they are that tight for money where does 85m come from? can this continue next summer and beyond?

  48. Go G10, go……I love the passion. Gotto give it to the naysayers with all guns blazing sometimes..Tell em, tell ‘em

  49. Naysayers?

  50. Don’t forget that Manu raised over £20mn on transfers out; Richardson, Smith, Heinze. Tevez is a 2 year loan deal so they have him on hire purchase. Can they continue to spend at the same rate unless they also sell? No chance. They spent very little the season before just Carrick which was covered by transfers out – RvN amongst them.

  51. “All sounds good to me, but why have Man U been throwing money around like confetti over the summer. I understand there was another deal that they tried me make for about 15m that did not come off, I think it was a striker, either Berbatov or Anelka. it would have taken their spending to about 85m in one summer since Nani and Anderson were £30m and Hargeaves was £17m and Tevez is about £5m per year I think.

    If they are that tight for money where does 85m come from? can this continue next summer and beyond?”

    Man Utd have spent £15m on Nani and Andersen so far, £17m on Hargreaves and £10m on Tevez but they’ve recouped £18m from the sales of Richardson, Smith and Rossi.

    That’s only a summer spending of £24m.

    Even Liverpool have only spent a net amount of £20m.

    Remember the summer of 1998 when Man Utd spent £28.5m on Yorke, Stam and Blomqvist? Our team cost £29.5m at that time.

    Don’t forget the summer of 2001 when they spent £48m on Veron and RvN or £29.1m on Rio in 2002 or £20m on Rooney in 2004.

    Those were the days they didn’t have to worry about balancing the books.

    Man Utd’s debt repayment this year will be £62m and their profit will be £90m.

    There was money to play with this summer and the signings of young talents as well as tying down the likes of Rooney and Ronaldo ensure that the brand is sellable in the future.

    The rising debts are all linked into the tremendous interest rates they agreed to in order to finance the deal and raise the £800m-odd required to buy the club.

    That’s why the Glazers are desperately trying to refinance the loans.

  52. If attitude alone was enough to get you a place in the side then Justin would be there every time. Unfortunately Bacary Sagna seems to have more ability on the ball and his timing and passing are better. I don’t think that MF will provide too much competition at RB because he is carving out a career as a utility player. But sometimes Justin seems to be little tense when he plays so when he gets his opportunity to play he needs to relax more…good luck to him, and I hope he gets to stay at the club for life as he says.

  53. They bought Smith for 7m and sold for 6m so they lost 1m on him but I guess his goals were worth that, but yes Rossi and Richardson was a profit of 11.5m.

    Nani and anderson will eventually be £30m though right? it would interesting to see which of their players will be getting old eg Rio, Neville, scholes, giggs, Saha and VD sar, in the next few years to see who they need to replace and how much that is likely to cost. They will argue that ronaldo, rooney, hargreaves, carrick, nani and anderson are their future, but we all know man u need a bigger squad than that. having said all this, I am sure their spending is in line with budgets and expected revenues etc so I dont expect them to hit troubles unless unexpected things happen such as they cant fill their stadium.

  54. “g10
    your the moron who cant accept change !
    Usmanov is a billionaire , i don’t know too many ‘
    billionaires who run their businesses into the ground?
    do you ?”

    If you want the name of a couple of incredibly rich men who have run their businesses into the ground then I’ll refer you to Robert Maxwell and George Gillet.

    Do you have any idea what’s going on with Man Utd or Liverpool’s finances at the moment? No, you probably don’t.

    “and also youve hit the nail on the head !
    you said

    Do you mean Glazer or Gillet and Hicks who have thrust half a billion pound of debt on their clubs or an Abramovich, who is a one-off?

    “Abramovich and Usmanov are powerful enough to
    buy AFC outright several times over
    ! if abramovich is a ONE off
    so is Usmanov…”

    Chelsea cost Roman a mere £60m to buy. He is indulging himself but even he has a limit. Hence why Chelsea were told to operate within a budget this summer.

    Arsenal is worth £500m + the £200m debt.

    You think Usmanov is prepared to pay £700m outright and not expect either a penny back or just his money back?

    Cuckoo.

    If not, we’ll be worse off.

    Even you should be able to understand the following – more debt = more debt repayment. More debt repayments = less money for transfers.

    “If DD is instilling confidence in Usmanov , don’t you think he is in a better position to comment
    on arsenals potential future than you ?!”

    He’s placed his confidence in a vicious thug, criminal, racketeer, heroin trafficker + accused rapist.

    I think it reflects badly on him.

    That’s just me, I guess.

    “Having said that i understand why the board arnt budging either , its all about MONEY not about your history and glory days that your waffling on about !”

    If it was about money they would have set a price and told anyone to match it and they have themselves a sale.

    I wonder what nonsense you’ll reply with next?

    At least you’re distracting me from my work so thanks.

  55. “I dont expect them to hit troubles unless unexpected things happen such as they cant fill their stadium.”

    You don’t expect them to hit trouble?

    Yearly Profit = £90m
    Yearly Debt repayment = £100m

    I’m not a mathematician but the numbers don’t add up.

    Personally, I expect the Glazers to sell up within the next 12 months, probably with a profit too.

  56. G10, Ethan, Stop doing this you seem like a ghastly pair of Lenny Bruce twins.

    Lets talk about the team instead.

  57. If the club falls into the hands of the likes of Kroenke or Usmanov, there may not be even be a team to discuss.

  58. You can’t keep thinking like that G10. Try to concentrate on the Manager and the team. The common aim of all of the protagonists is that they want/need the club to be successful.

    On a positive note. How would you go about wrestling the club from the current ‘owners’ and delivering it into the hands of the true owners..the supporters? Actually I might add manager and players to that. …and if you could do that how would you make sure that the club was managed successfully without being bogged down by referenda and elections.

  59. G10, hope you’re right about man u, but I just dont see how the man u owners can sanction the purchase of all these players unless they know they have the funds there. that is basic accounting surely. If they were 10m short of paying the bills then Tevez (a player they did not really need given they have rooney and actually need a target man) would not have been ‘bought’. But I would love to see them crumble.

    Good point about abramovich who has actually spent peanuts of his vast fortune on chelsea compared with say the Glazers. RA must be a tight git!

  60. Frank, the common aim of those in charge of Leeds and Borussia Dortmund was a want/need for their clubs to be successful.

    With regards to your second paragraph, you would now need legislation in place as they do in the Bundesliga, where 51% of clubs have to be owned by fans.

    Even in China they have legislation protecting their national assets. Foreign businessmen can not own more than 25% of Chinese businesses.

    For some reason, in this country we’re happy to allow everything from our utilities companies to our supermarkets to our football clubs to fall into the hands of any ol’ Tom, Dick and Harry.

  61. Personally, I expect the Glazers to sell up within the next 12 months, probably with a profit too.

    well then they aren’t really doing that bad a job then are they? .

    Your truly flogging a dead dog g10 . You don’t have to convince me , like i’ve said many times i don’t care if
    Ronald Macdonald runs arsenal football club , if your not a crook when you enter the club , you will be once you hit the boardroom !

    and don’t kid yourself for a second that your old frumpy mates will be in the box seat still in the next 2 years, they will sell out to the highest bidder eventually , piles and piles of cash starts to look mighty tempting to anyone if you look at it long enough ! if it isn’t too dein it will be someone else , you can count on that !

    concentrate on the football !
    because unless your a fly on the boardroom wall
    your just speculating !

    id rather deal with the fact that DD’s has established a corporation , with a view to take over arsenal , and as sure as the sun will shine,
    DD isnt finished on this issue !

    you can either embrace it or let it destroy you .

    id rather hope it does the latter to you !

  62. Maybe I used too strong a word (nonsense) …My point is financial planning, engineering is quite complex and ourselves, the press, etc have very limited information to draw any conclusions from…
    It would take the rest of the day to comment on everything so i will stick to some examples:
    1-Lots of points on valuation of the Club, comparison with MUtd or Real and the fact that DD sold cheaply…to do this you would need data on expected future cash flows, terms of the debt, etc + understand if we are talking equity value (shares only) or enterprise value (all cash flows) + in the case of MUtd the buyout debt must be in another structure (holding) than the day-to-day operations and no published accounts …conclusion: a little pointless to debate for hours around that.
    2- not taking dividends out from a business (in this case current AFC shareholders) is not as such an act of generosity…as long as the profits are used within the company to generate additional value. For instance numerous buyout or VC funds do not pay themselves dividends and believe me they are not charities;the profit comes in the share appreciation.
    3- In theory no need for the current shareholders to “wait” to get the value increase from the flats at Highbury or future revenues from Emirates, it should already be valued in the shares (just discounted for the risk of it not happening…). The illiquidity of the shares makes this particular market not very efficient but, however, I think the current shareholders could get the benefits now if they sold (the £8000 a share may already reflect all this, i don’t know)
    4- The fact that a rich person (in this case for ex. DF, who made a fortune in the notoriously transparent and ethical business of diamond trading) has already a lot of money does not mean he will not sell to make a profit. In fact, in my short life most rich people I met spend their time trying to make more profits despite having what i would consider enough to go hiking around the world for the rest of my life….I suspect this is actually one of the reasons why they got there in the first place
    5- the current structure of the club is through tradable shares which is for a purpose ie. current shareholders can sell and eventually make money…i am sure they could have decided long ago to go for a less “capitalistic” structure. In the meantime what happens on the financial front (profits, etc) is first and foremost in the sole interest of the shareholders…I note that all the recent speculations (DD, Kroenke, Usmanov,..) have resulted in one thing: the share price has gone up.(so it worked well for them).
    6- There is far from enough info. on the MUtd or Liverpool deals to seriously speculate about them going bust anytime soon and AFC dominating the world…I believe they are also counting on increased media revenues mid term (club by club deals ?) which may still happen….anyway, even if the Glazers faced difficulties the MUtd brand is strong and would attract somebody else and I am not convinced the day-to-day running of the club would be affected. The Leeds thing was pretty unprofessionnal and daft.
    What MUtd and Liverpool have shown however is that sadly fans do not have much of a say in corporate matters.

    I am not saying all points raised are irrelevant (the share split proposal to “open up” the shareholding to more fans is interesting) but it is a little boring to be bogged down on financial issues when we do not have the detailed data nor the technical competence

  63. “but I just dont see how the man u owners can sanction the purchase of all these players unless they know they have the funds there. that is basic accounting surely. If they were 10m short of paying the bills then Tevez (a player they did not really need given they have rooney and actually need a target man) would not have been ‘bought’. But I would love to see them crumble.”

    The Glazers refinanced their loans last year but repeated interest rate rises have only served to return the annual debt bill to pre-financing levels.

    According to the Independent Man Utd Supporters Trust, £73m is payable this year and the other £27m in the future.

  64. ethangooneer

    You’re so consumed with Dein that you think Arsenal can’t survive without Dein? This is a guy who plotted to sell the club to the highest bidder to fill his own pocket and was thrown out. He’s on an ego trip trying to make money through Arsenal and is not satisfied with sale of his own shares. Inverstments? What investments? Investment is now the word being bandied about by big borrowers. Borrowed money to finance player purchases like Pool and MANU are doing? Let them miss the title and champions league position for a year or two and see what happens to them. In any case, have you read the latest on MANU finances and also the amount the new Pool owners are raising to pay for the takeover and their new stadium? Which investment is better than Emirates which is generating revenue three times that of Highbury to enable the club take care of itself other than relying on the banks or shareholder’s borrowed money ( so called investment). Nobody will sell to Dein so forget it. If Arsenal is undervalued and is so good for new shareholders why is it bad for existing shareholders, so they should sell? DEIN IS DREAMING BIG BUT WE ALL DREAM BIG AT TIMES AND IS NOT ALL DREAMS THAT ARE REALISED. Dein did a lot of good for Arsenal and got paid so are Arsene, Pat Rice, Edelman, Fiszman and many others including stewards working day and night to ensure the sustenance of the Arsenal. DEIN IS NOT GOD, you must know that.

  65. Interesting post, tokala.

    One quick point,

    “I believe they are also counting on increased media revenues mid term (club by club deals ?) ”

    To break the collective bargaining deal, you would need 14 of the 20 clubs to vote in favour of it.

    Given that only Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal would benefit from it, it’ll never happen.

  66. YW

    You think because they are aging they will sell? Don’t you know that the key shareholders apart from Fiszman inheritted their shares? Lady Bracewell-Smith, the Carr family and Peter Hill-Wood all inherited the shares from their forebears. One of the Carrs is a director overseeing youth development. You see, these are guys who are already rich and don’t need the money except their businesses are failing which is not the case. Fiszman has even suggested that he might pass on his shares to his next of kin, too. Its more likely that the Carrs, Bracewell-Smith and PHW will also pass it on. Age per se, might not end the holdings of the families in the Arsenal; they will like to uphold tradition.

  67. man u plan on meeting their increasing commitments by increasing ticket prices, but if they are not winning trophies at the same time, how can they guarentee that they will fill Old trafford? I heard their season ticket waiting list is virtually non existent already. it looks like a dangerous game to play to me.

  68. Thanks G10
    Now to the team :
    For those of you who don’t read French there has been a huge hype around Lassana Diarra (“exceptionnal performance” was the word) and he is expected to be a regular in the national first team from now on (potentially ahead of Sagna and Clerc at RB). However, Arsene said on tv he bought him to play CM at Arsenal (he seems happy with Sagna, Hoyte, Eboue, Flam as potential RBs…). Could he play the Gilberto role if GS is not back from the US and fit (likely)? or should it be Flamini ?

  69. All this talk of super owners is getting old! If one arrived tomorrow in his gold trimmed tank and began firing £50 notes to all, would it be any improvement to the team? I idea that no player in the world game is beyond financial reach seems appealing on the surface but let’s all face facts, Arsene doesn’t do that business. Arsene, time and time again has said he has faith in his players and he likes to unearth gems, create stars and play sublime football. If another Mr Russia or Uncle Sam were to own the club how would that effect the Arsene vision (after all he runs the football side of the club, all elements and loves his job). There is no other manager in the league that has the trust or control that Arsene has, so for me personally I would worry about some large ego striding but to the gates and defining the future based on a pound note solely.

  70. Howards, One of the benefits of being a tax exile is that Fiszman won’t have to pay any CGT when he disposes of his shares.

    Given that he’s already stated that he’s going to hold onto his shares for sometime yet and he gave the AST that he plans to stay on as long as possible to defeat Dein, I don’t think we have to worry about him selling up any time soon.

    gazzap, as tokala mentioned, the Man Utd brand is incredibly strong. They went three years without winning the title and they didn’t suffer a drop in attendences. Although prices are increasing, there are so many tourists and day trippers wanting to travel to OT that I don’t think the Glazers are too worried about pricing out the ordinary fan.

    5.30.
    It’s been fun.
    Cheerio!

  71. G10 Thanks.
    Now to the team :
    For those of you who don’t read French there has been a huge hype around Lassana Diarra (“exceptionnal performance” was the word) and he is expected to be a regular in the national first team from now on (potentially ahead of Sagna and Clerc at RB). However, Arsene said on tv he bought him to play CM at Arsenal (he seems happy with Sagna, Hoyte, Eboue, Flam as potential RBs…). Could he play the Gilberto role if GS is not back from the US and fit (likely)? or should it be Flamini ?

  72. Excellent Tokala. Thank you.

    Probably impossible but what would it take for the real supporters to have control of the club? If for instance there were 1m of us we would have to purchase the club for 500-1000 GBP each, if 100K then it would be 5-10K each. Sort of season ticket prices in the first instance. Of course we would have to achieve lots of things first and it would be a miracle of organisation…and maybe it is only a mind-game. But come on how would we do it?

  73. frank get a grip !
    in fact g 10 , all of you get a grip !

    as usual just because i have an opinion ,im targeted.

    Like i said ,DD is chairman of red and white , and if you think he is calling it red and white to open an sushi bar , you clearly are beyond help .

    He has played his cards and now WE WILL ALL ‘helplessly’ watch as these cards fall !

    Wenger re-signing and being in charge of transfers and the players should be our only concern.He now is committed to the club and
    has the final say in CLUB matters !
    He’s the boss …
    The people in the board room are all muppets as far as im concerned . And if your asking me would i want the old frumps in power or someone with a HUGE check book who would let arsene buy the likes of RIBERY or babel instead of watch them slip by, Ill go with the CHECK BOOK ! !

    sorry there are issues like left wingers and goalies
    that need to be addressed !

    you can all CHUG-WOW all you want about the
    politics of the club , but unless you become a billionaire overnight , join the rest of us ..

    oh and frank
    Probably impossible but what would it take for the real supporters to have control of the club? If for instance there were 1m of us we would have to purchase the club for 500-1000 GBP each, if 100K then it would be 5-10K each.

    DEAR OH DEAR OH DEAR !

  74. howard take some zanex !

    Im just stating that DD means business !
    and he’s used the media circus to his advantage.
    I also was stating facts that he was approached by newcastle to join them a while back and others , and he declined them SO HE AINT thinking PURELY MONEY !.
    I think it shows you the passion he still has for the club and the friendship of wenger .
    I know you’d all love me to be a Dein follower .
    but im NOT , But im sure more than half of you hypocritically sided with dein and not the board 5 months ago !
    look in the mirror not at me !
    you hypocrites !
    Ive always said let the boards politics stay in the boardroom , but if your asking me to sell my soul to the devil to ensure we have SOLID FIANCIAL backing in the future ..

    where do i sign ?

  75. It was a game Ethan. A chance to get away from the ranting and imagine a different world, just for once. Trying to break the circle. You know…you do don’t you?? Oh dear you don’t do you!

  76. this is all ethan ever does on this blog and it is getting al little tiresome

  77. Quite right Twotouch….Tell you what Ethan. Why don’t you stick to your own site…and we will come to you when the need arises.

  78. Dein has soooo much passion for arsenal because he reportedly turned down…wait for it…Newcastle!?!?!?!

  79. Just wanted to let eveyone knoe that I turned own a chance to support Rushden and Diamonds. I must be the hugest arsenal fan on the planet!!

  80. 2touch AS USUAL your missing the point !
    if this was about Money he would of jumped on the next profit baring club and suck it dry like a vampire ,and how you relate Newcastle to rushden and diamonds is beyond me !
    IT REALLY GOES TO SHOW US HOW LITTLE KNOWLEDGE YOU POSSESS !

    Yes dein does have so much passion for arsenal !
    ,there you go again stating the bloody obvious !
    and another thing ..YOUR COMMENT …

    Just wanted to let eveyone knoe that I turned own a chance to support Rushden and Diamonds.
    (NICE SPELLING BY THE WAY)

    SHAME ! FOR US YOU DIDNT !

    AND TAKE FRANK OHDEAR ALONG WITH YOU
    BECAUSE BOTH OF YOU HAVE BEEN TALKING OUT YOUR ARSE-NALS FOR SOME TIME NOW !
    MIND YOU RUSHDEN PROBABLY WOULDN’T TAKE YOUS EITHER

    AND OHDEAR FRANK
    Why don’t you stick to your own site…and we will come to you when the need arises.

    SOUNDS GOOD TO ME ! BUT ILL CALL YOU !
    NO NEED TO VISIT !
    YOU WOULD ONLY FILL UP THE SCREEN WITH YOUR INTELLIGENT WIT .. LIKE

    OH DEAR … / AND ADMIT YOUR WRONG RESPECTIVELY

    NOT QUITE SURE THE NORMAL WORLD IS READY FOR YOU BOTH . STAY IN YOUR ARSENAL DREAM WORLD ENCLOSURE HERE,WHERE YOU ALL BELIEVE
    THE TITLE IS OURS BECAUSE WE DREW TO BLACKBURN, SO WE MUST BE GOOD !

    AND DEIN IS ACTUALLY OPENING A RUSSIAN PIZZA FRANCHISE . TAKEOVERS ARE JUST RUMORS WITH NO SUBSTANCE ! .. HahAha

    TOO ALL OTHERS LIKE SOL GOONER – TORONTO-
    DANNY – AMOS – AND FLINT (SOMETIMES) PAT-GAZ – AMOS ITS BEEN NICE KNOWING YOU ! HOPEFULLY ILL BUMP INTO YOU ON ANOTHER BLOG !

    AND YW

    ITS BEEN … INDIFFERENT !
    STILL KEEP UP THE 4-5-1 FORMATION
    ONE DAY WHEN ENOUGH ARE INJURED YOU’LL GET IT RIGHT !

    CAIO

  81. Oh no. Is Ethan going? Quick! The blog needs a new billonaire owner to buy another one or WE WON’T BE READY TO COMPETE WITH THE DOOM AND GLOOM OF OTHER BLOGS AND WILL BE LET BEHIND IN THE RACE FOR THE BIGGEST AND BESTEST BLOG IN THE COSMOS!


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