Matchday 4 is traditionally (if you can have a tradition in a tournament where the format changes so frequently) when the top two become clearer, indeed some teams tie up their participation in the next round. So as Billy Bragg so eloquently put it, “Back to Basics” and here is my take on this weeks matches and what they mean for the tournament.
Group A
Chelsea are in pole position and with a victory in the Camp Nou could seal their progress whilst making Barcelona’s a little less clear. The one-goal win at Stamford Bridge a fortnight ago has made them clear favourites to top the Group, currently holding a five-point advantage over the reigning Champions. With the bad blood from previous encounters not being allowed to fade by the media, Rijkaards’ conciliatory comments should be commended. Mourinho meanwhile continues with his tiresome tirades about how Gudjohnsen has learnt to dive since joining the Catalans, ignoring the fact that Drogba can hit the dirt faster than a sack of shit dropped from a plane without a parachute; his lack of good grace there for all to see. Indeed, a win for both Chelsea and Werder will make their position very “interesting”, with the Germans visit to Barcelona becoming crucial and potentially deciding their respective fates. It seems that the absence of Samuel Eto’o is making life very uncomfortable in Europe, the failure to sign Thierry Henry all the more crucial.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. Chelsea
2. Barcelona
Group B
Bayern Munich can seal their qualification tonight with a win over Sporting Lisbon. Qualification would also seemingly put the kibosh on any transfer hopes that Owen Hargreaves harbours for a January move to Old Trafford. Personally, I would hope that if he were available in the summer that Arsene would seriously consider bidding for him. Spartak who apparently have not won a Champions League in twenty attempts will be eliminated if they lose to an Internazionale side that are my outside bet for the trophy, after Arsenal of course. The Italians have had a slow start with just one win in their opening three games but look set to qualify ahead of Sporting, finding form at just the right time, no heading Serie A following their 4 – 3 win at the weekend in the Milan derby.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. Bayern Munich
2. Internazionale
Group C
Liverpool and PSV will both qualify if they win, pretty simple really. The Scousers appear to be favourites to qualify with PSV still to visit Anfield. However, that would be to underestimate the Dutch side who could qualify in top spot with a scoring draw in that match.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. Liverpool
2. PSV Eindhoven
Group D
Valencia definitely qualifies with a win, as do Roma. If the Italians fail in their objective and the Spaniards win, they win the Group. I find that whenever Valencia come into an equation that blood pressure starts rising and a strong desire to dump them out of any competition with a hugely spectacular aggregate score starts to take over my thoughts. However, of the three Iberian teams they appear to be the one who are best equipped to progress if the squad stays injury free. Roma meanwhile having got into the tournament through the backdoor seem set to cruise into the Second Round tonight and are probably the weakest of the three remaining Italian teams.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. Valencia
2. Roma
Group E
This one is as in previous seasons, a straight fight between Real and Lyon with the French now owning the “Great Underachievers in Europe”, stolen from Arsenal by achieving about five seasons of heroic failures in the latter stages of the tournament. They swatted Real aside in the first match, unlucky not to inflict a five or six goal defeat upon the Madrileños. The Spaniards are a better side than last season which is not saying much by their standards, Capello has organised them more efficiently than any of his predecessors since Del Bosque was in charge – I still find it hard to believe he was sacked for asking for a pay rise having delivered Champions League and Primera Division titles in successive seasons! Complete lunacy – whilst in van Nistelrooy they have a proven goal scorer in The Champions League. They cannot be dismissed but it would take a considerable slice of luck for them to get past the Quarter-Finals.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. Lyon
2. Real Madrid
Group F
Another reasonably straightforward Group when it comes to predicting the winners; Manchester United top the Group if they win and Celtic lose. As far as the matches this week go, despite newspaper talk building up Copenhagen it will be a major surprise if United get anything less than a win, a defeat would be almost unthinkable. Celtic meanwhile will seal their place in the Second Round, which I believe would be the first time for them, should they win in Lisbon. A defeat would not be a disaster for them as both they and Benfica still have one match each against Copenhagen and Manchester United with the Portuguese having to visit Old Trafford.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. Manchester United
2. Celtic
Group G
Probably the most difficult Group to call in terms of finishing places, other than Hamburg will finish fourth irrespective of their result tonight. Any one of the other three teams could win the Group or finish in the UEFA Cup spot. Of the three, Arsenal appear to be in the driving seat with two of their remaining three at home whilst CSKA visit Arsenal and entertain Porto in what could be a decisive game in the Group. Ideally, Arsenal will have sealed their progress into the Second Round before their final match in Porto next month. Contrary to popular belief, Arsenal cannot qualify tonight with a win although if that is coupled with a Porto defeat then qualification is pretty much assured.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. Arsenal
2. CSKA Moscow
Group H
The draw that everyone wanted fell into Milan’s lap despite the fact that they should not even be in the competition. So fickle are the footballing fates that it would be no surprise if they won the Champions League, providing proof positive that cheats do prosper. Joining them in Round 2 (or “The Round of Sixteen” as UEFA like to call it; factually correct, just a bloody useless description) would appear to be in Lille’s hands if the formbook is followed. Milan ought to beat Anderlecht quite comfortably whilst Lille will fancy their chances at home to AEK Athens. Should those results occur, Milan do qualify whilst Lille would then need a point from their remaining two games to nab second spot.
Prediction for Final Group placings:
1. AC Milan
2. Lille
