Posted by: Yogi's Warrior | September 12, 2006

Champions League Preview

The RichList League of Also-Rans, or UEFA Champions League as it is more commonly known, gets underway tonight with the first Groups starting their route to Athens. As per usual thirty two are in this stage but ten teams either harbour ambitions to, or can, win the final. As is the case every season, the strong are getting stronger and opening one hell of a gap to the weaker teams.

If one is to assess the competition clinically (or should that be cynically), there are probably three teams who expect to win it for one reason or another. Favourites will be last years winners, Barcelona. Put simply, they have as a good an all-round squad as any but in Ronaldinho they have everyone’s favourite player. Except for me that is. Personally, he is a player who infuriates. Very good ball control and spatial awareness and he contributes with his fair share of goals but to be honest, the constant praise from others – not his fault, I know – wears thin and the flicks and tricks too often are unproductive. The essence of the Catalans is in Samuel Eto’o and his goalscoring feats allied to Carles Puyol’s defensive capabilities. Ronaldinho is an extravagant player who survives in this side because of the hard work of his colleagues. Deco for example is equally creative but works somewhat harder in generally winning the ball. If they have a weakness, at fullback they are susceptible especially on the right hand side. Belletti may be an asset attacking but he is a liability as his defensive awareness is practically non-existent. Oleguer meanwhile is slow and can be opened up quite readily. On the left, van Bronckhorst is a capable defender but essentially a midfielder. Valdes is not a world class keeper, unable to dethrone Casillas for the national squad and probably third behind Reina in the squad. Defensive strength lies with Puyol and Marques in the centre. Add to this Thuram and Zambrotta, and they have strengthened well. Larsson’s departure has been filled by the equally intelligent Gudjohnsen so in some respects they are stronger than last time round but do they have the will to win it again?

Chelsea probably believe they have as good a chance as Barca and on paper that seems to be quite true. They have probably the strongest starting XI in the tournament until Mourinho starts tinkering with it and produces an unbalanced midfield of Ballack, Lampard, Essien and one other. Devoid of width. But to have retained the Premiership deserves credit as they have been the most consistent side in England for the last two years. Defensively, Ashley Cole will improve them on the left hand side although the unfortunate Wayne Bridge may feel somewhat aggrieved by his arrival. John Terry is equally capable in the centre but it is the other two berths in defence that seem to be of concern. I am not, and have never been, convinced by Paulo Ferreira. He is the beneficiary of his managers largesse and insistence on bringing in tried and trusted lieutenants at the start of his reign. Add to that the acrimonious departure of Gallas and Ferreira seems set fair for one last hurrah at Stamford Bridge although he is my prediction for a summer departure in 2007.

Milan also as a team to challenge but not AC. This could be Internazionale’s season to win, the first time since 1965. Hernan Crespo returns from Chelsea in what they hope will be another successful spell in Italy whilst Fabio Grosso will improve their defensive capabilities. Olivier Dacourt, for so long linked with Arsenal, eventually left Roma in the summer to bolster central midfield. Juventus refugees Zlatan Ibrahimovich and Patrick Vieira will strengthen their squad, despite the formers temperamentality and the latter seemingly having seen better days. Having surprisingly lost to Villarreal last season on away goals, Inter will want to rectify their poor European Record in recent years, their best being four years ago when they reached the semi-finals before being taken apart by their city rivals.

There is a second tranche of teams who could win the trophy. Real Madrid have improved in the short time that Capello has been in charge with a defensive quality previously missing in the past Galacticos era. van Nistelrooy will score for fun against most European opposition but it could be one season too soon although if they reach the final, will Jose Antonio face more disappointment in being relegated to the subs bench…Lyon have to my mind been the team who should be awarded “Best Underachievers” in recent years. They have cruised through the Group stages but hit the buffers at the quarter final stage. During Arsenal’s run last season, they were the team that I most wanted to avoid each time a draw was made. Could they take the step forward this time out or will their complete dominance of the French League work against them, depriving them of meaningful competition once the Group stage is over…AC Milan will miss Shevchenko. You cannot take a player of that quality, not replace him and expect to progress very far. I would expect them to hit teams on the break and win a large number of games by one goal. Filipo Inzaghi is in the twilight of his career, cracking on in footballing terms. Their saving grace going forward is Kaka, eminently talented and capable of changing a game in a second. He was one of the few successes for Brazil in Germany, outshining his Catalan counterpart in a lacklustre World Cup campaign…Manchester United will want to put last season’s dismal performances well and truly behind them. If they do not, Alex Ferguson may be looking forward to earlier than expected retirement plans. Looking at their squad, defensively they are one of the best equipped, particularly with Gabriel Heinze’s imminent return. Further up the pitch however, they have similar problems to Arsenal in that a strong starting quartet in midfield or duo in attack is not replaced by similar quality in reserve, merely promising youngsters and this could be their undoing should the progress from the Group stage…Bayern Munich represent Germany’s best chance of honours. Two important transfer dealings for them this season put them in the outsiders category. Firstly, the signing of Lukas Podolski gives them a traditional centre forward to aim at, good in the air but very mobile, despite what Germany 2006 showed us. But perhaps the most important event of the summer for the club was retaining the services of Owen Hargreaves. Had they lost him, the heart would have gone from their midfield following on from the departure of Michael Ballack to Chelsea. As it is, Bayern will be dangerous opponents but perhaps age will finally catch up with Oliver Kahn, could this be one season too far for him? Quarter Finalists at best. Of the remainder, a favourable draw could see Valencia take full advantage and progress to the latter stages.

So what of Arsenal? Last seasons exploits will have certainly raised expectations, of that there is no doubt. Reaching the final was beyond the wildest dreams of all and creates its own problems as well as advantages. The fundamental problem is that no-one will take them lightly anymore, as Real Madrid appeared to do so in the Bernabeu. Opponents, so the theory goes, will now close them down much quicker than they did before which is when the slick passing game will need to be at its best. Moreover it is more likely in the Group stage to be a case that home sides are more cautious than perhaps they may have been in the past. My expectation of this season? Well, I expect a Quarter Final berth unless they meet someone like Barcelona in the Second Round when that would be a tough call. Anything beyond that and I would delighted. A favourable draw such as last season and I can see them progressing further. Realistically, it is very difficult for teams to reach the final in successive seasons, Valencia were the last to do so at the turn of the century, and to expect more of the same is something that even most optimistic of us will find hard to justify.

The remaining teams have a chance, no-one can be ruled out, but this season I am not expecting any “surprise packages” to do well. So to all those not mentioned, enjoy the ride and hope that your team proves me wrong. I just cannot see it, that’s all.


Responses

  1. Great site I found it through hotmails list of top blogs!

    Can’t wait til the Champions League starts, think that you’ve given quite a fair assesment of the teams involved although I’m surprised there’s no Liverpool!

    My own team is Celtic, of course we start with Man United at Old Trafford – no easy ask – but we’ve had results in recent years over Barcelona, Ajax, Liverpool and the like so we know what we can do.

    Good luck to Arsenal (unless we meet!) and I’m sure this years Champions League will be as good as always, although one thing is missing from it this year – Juventus!

  2. No I do not think Liverpool can win the tournament. Indeed, with the number of new arrivals they will do well to reach the QF. But as Arsenal showed last time out, a favourable draw, etc.

    As for Celtic, I wish them well. The three teams aside from United look to be pretty evenly matched so they could finish second or a distant fourth. Expect the three to take points off of each other so much will depend on whether anyone can take something off of United. I suspect that Celtic are targetting the UEFA Cup place as a minimum which would mean winning 2 of their 3 home games and for second, probably three points away from home.


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